Ethiopia vs Senegal Prediction

Our pick:Over 1.5 goals

77%Odds 1.27

Picked at 1.27 · now 1.28

Correct score0-2Alternative1-2

Bookmaker odds

Home8.05

Draw4.55

Away1.36

All oddsPremium

What is the prediction for Ethiopia vs Senegal?

Our correct score is 0-2, then 1-2. Ethiopia are in better form heading into this match.

Methodology

Match analysis

Ethiopia come into this on shorter rest than Senegal after losing 1-0 in Sudan on 25 September, and they have scored four goals in their last five games. Superior expects Ethiopia vs Senegal on 29 September to end 0-2 to Senegal, with 1-2 the alternative.

Senegal beat Iraq 5-0 and drew 1-1 in Mozambique

Superior's score grid is built from each side's expected scoring rate, and Senegal's carries weight from a 6.4 attack rating and 1.8 goals a game across a run against France, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Mozambique. Ethiopia average 0.8 and have not scored more than once in any of their last five: 0-1, 1-1, 1-0, 1-3 and 1-0. Senegal's defence rates 6.3 against that thin output, and the forecast keeps Ethiopia at nil.

Ethiopia scored in all three of their recent home games

A 0-2 needs an Ethiopian blank, and at home they have found the net each time lately: 1-1 and 1-0 against Malawi in June and 1-0 against Guinea-Bissau last October. One Ethiopian goal turns the forecast into the 1-2 alternative. Senegal also drew four days before this game and were held 0-0 by Saudi Arabia in June, so a quieter Senegal night is possible too.

Written by the Superior Football Desk