Leganes vs Castellón Prediction - 28 September 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
78%Odds 1.28
Picked at 1.28 · now 1.29
Correct score1-1Alternative1-2
What is the prediction for Leganes vs Castellón?
Our correct score is 1-1, then 1-2. Castellón are in better form heading into this match.
Match analysis
Castellón arrive unbeaten in five, and their 5-0 win over Tenerife on 19 September is the loudest number in Leganes vs Castellón on 28 September. Superior's pick is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, rated a 78 percent chance by the model, because a visiting attack scoring 2.2 a game needs little help from Leganes to reach two.
Castellón have scored 11 goals in their last five
Superior builds an expected scoring rate for each side from what it scores and concedes, then prices every scoreline on a Poisson grid. Castellón carry the heavier side of that grid: wins at Girona (2-1) and over Albacete (2-0) sit alongside the Tenerife result, and they scored in four of the five. Leganes offer a second route, having beaten Granada 3-2 at home on 20 September, a week after they lost 2-0 at the same Tenerife side Castellón put five past.
Three of Leganes' last five had fewer than two goals
Leganes drew 0-0 at Las Palmas and won 1-0 against Eldense and at Oviedo, and they failed to score in two of their last five. The last time Castellón visited, in September 2025, they won 1-0. A repeat of that 1-0, or a 0-0, loses the bet, and a Leganes side that keeps the game as tight as it did in August is the real threat here.
More tips for this game
- Correct score: 1-1
Today's acca
1 games, total odds 1.35Get the daily pick and the morning ticket on Telegram.
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Formations
Expected formations
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 January 2026 | Castellón | 2 - 0 | Leganes |
| 29 September 2025 | Leganes | 0 - 1 | Castellón |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +10 | 16 | ||
| 2 | 6 | +8 | 15 | ||
| 3 | 7 | +6 | 13 | ||
| 4 | 6 | +6 | 13 | ||
| 5 | 6 | +6 | 12 | ||
| 6 | 7 | +2 | 12 | ||
| 7 | 6 | +3 | 11 | ||
| 8 | 6 | +1 | 11 | ||
| 9 | 7 | -1 | 11 | ||
| 10 | 6 | +1 | 10 | ||
| 11 | 6 | 0 | 10 | ||
| 12 | 6 | +1 | 8 | ||
| 13 | 7 | -1 | 8 | ||
| 14 | 7 | -1 | 8 | ||
| 15 | 7 | -3 | 8 | ||
| 16 | 7 | -3 | 6 | ||
| 17 | 6 | -4 | 6 | ||
| 18 | 6 | -4 | 5 | ||
| 19 | 6 | -5 | 5 | ||
| 20 | 7 | -3 | 4 | ||
| 21 | 7 | -11 | 4 | ||
| 22 | 7 | -8 | 1 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 16 | |
| 2 | Eibar | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 15 | |
| 3 | Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | |
| 4 | Mallorca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 13 | |
| 5 | Almeria | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 12 | |
| 6 | Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 | |
| 7 | Burgos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 11 | |
| 8 | Leganes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 | |
| 9 | Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 | |
| 10 | Sporting Gijon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | |
| 12 | Oviedo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | |
| 13 | Granada CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | |
| 14 | Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | |
| 15 | Celta de Vigo II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | |
| 16 | Andorra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 6 | |
| 17 | Cordoba | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 | |
| 18 | Eldense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 5 | |
| 19 | Valladolid | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 5 | |
| 20 | Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 | |
| 22 | Albacete | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 |