Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Prediction - September 9, 2026

UEFA Champions LeagueWorldFull time
Liverpool
2:1
Atletico Madrid
Projected scoreOur pick
1-1

Alternative:2-1

Goals: Over 1.51.21Won

Bookmaker odds

Home1.73price rising, opened at 1.70
Draw3.96price falling, opened at 4.10
Away4.54price rising, opened at 4.50

Market move since Sep 6. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.11price falling, opened at 1.15
Under 1.54.85price rising, opened at 4.60
Over 2.51.51price falling, opened at 1.61
Under 2.52.38price rising, opened at 2.31
Over 3.52.36price falling, opened at 2.46
Under 3.51.59price rising, opened at 1.47
Both teams to score
Yes1.53price falling, opened at 1.59
No2.37price rising, opened at 2.24
Odd/Even
Odd1.88price rising, opened at 1.86
Even1.82price falling, opened at 1.84
Handicap
Home -0.751.88price rising, opened at 1.86
Away +0.751.88price rising, opened at 1.86

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?

The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 2-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Liverpool are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-4Methodology

Why this prediction

  • Liverpool and Atletico Madrid average 3.2 goals a match between them, against a line of 1.5.
  • Atletico Madrid attack rating 6.3 meets a Liverpool defence rating of 6.2.
  • Counter signalAtletico Madrid defence rating 6.3 meets a Liverpool attack rating of 6.2.

Markets to consider

Best price we found across books
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Premium model depth

Unlocked after full time

Post match archive

Grade: WON

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 1-110.6%Projected
  2. 2-19.7%Alternative
  3. 1-08.9%
  4. 2-08.2%
  5. 1-26.3%

Top five combined: 43.7%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeLiverpoolxG1.84
AwayAtletico MadridxG1.19
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
4.9%
8.9%
8.2%
5.0%
2.3%
0.8%
0.3%
1
5.8%
11%
9.7%
6.0%
2.7%
1.0%
0.4%
2
3.4%
6.3%
5.8%
3.5%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
3
1.4%
2.5%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
5
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6+
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 58.4%41.6% No
Over 1.5 80.4%19.6% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 58.2%41.8% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 35.8%64.2% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Liverpool win and over 2.5 goals35.5%
Liverpool win and both teams score26.9%
Atletico Madrid win and over 2.5 goals15.4%
Draw and under 2.5 goals15.5%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Liverpool or draw75.5%
Atletico Madrid or draw47.4%
Either team wins77.2%
Draw no bet: Liverpool68.2%
Draw no bet: Atletico Madrid31.8%
Liverpool win to nil25.7%
Atletico Madrid win to nil11.1%
Team goals
Liverpool to score84.1%
Atletico Madrid to score69.5%
Liverpool over 1.5 goals54.8%
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals33.2%
Liverpool clean sheet30.5%
Atletico Madrid clean sheet15.9%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Today's acca

2 selections at 1.73

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Team news

Expected formations

Liverpool: 4-2-3-1(predicted)
Prediction, preview and head to head: Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
Head to Head

Head to Head

Liverpool
3 - 2
Atletico Madrid
September 17, 2025
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
September 17, 2025Liverpool3 - 2Atletico Madrid

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