Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United Prediction - September 6, 2026
Alternative:1-0
Goals: Under 3.51.38Won
What is the prediction for Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 1-0 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: New Mexico United are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match highlights
PremiumMatch analysis
New Mexico United arrive unbeaten in four without needing a flood of goals to stay that way, and that controlled record against a Las Vegas Lights side short on firepower is why Superior backs Under 3.5 goals at 1.38 for their USL Championship meeting on 6 September, a 77 percent probability.
New Mexico's unbeaten run has still been low scoring
New Mexico have won three and drawn one of their last five without needing a flood of goals to do it, their heaviest win a 5-2 away from home two matches back. Las Vegas have scored in three of their last five but rarely more than once in a game, and their most recent result was a scoreless draw. That combination, a controlled unbeaten side against a team short on firepower, points toward a game that stays under control rather than opens up.
New Mexico's 5-2 is the scoreline that beats this
LOSES IF: four or more goals combined. New Mexico's 5-2 win two matches ago is proof their attack can put a game out of reach quickly, and Las Vegas have shipped multiple goals at home this run too. If that version of New Mexico turns up rather than the tighter one from their last two results, the total climbs past this line fast.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
Markets to consider
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Grade: WON
This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.
Scoreline Depth
- 1-113.0%Projected
- 1-010.9%Alternative
- 0-110.4%
- 0-08.7%
- 2-18.1%
Top five combined: 51.1%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Market Probability View
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Full Market Board
Correlated combos
Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.
Outcome markets
Team goals
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Today's acca
2 selections at 1.73
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Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | New Mexico United | 3 - 1 | Las Vegas Lights |
| August 17, 2025 | New Mexico United | 2 - 2 | Las Vegas Lights |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | +10 | 40 | ||
| 1 | 18 | +14 | 38 | ||
| 2 | 18 | +13 | 30 | ||
| 2 | 20 | +9 | 37 | ||
| 3 | 22 | +2 | 35 | ||
| 3 | 17 | +8 | 28 | ||
| 4 | 18 | +1 | 27 | ||
| 4 | 21 | +7 | 35 | ||
| 5 | 18 | 0 | 26 | ||
| 5 | 22 | +2 | 35 | ||
| 6 | 23 | +2 | 34 | ||
| 6 | 19 | -7 | 22 | ||
| 7 | 21 | +9 | 32 | ||
| 7 | 16 | +6 | 22 | ||
| 8 | 16 | -1 | 21 | ||
| 8 | 22 | +5 | 31 | ||
| 9 | 17 | -4 | 20 | ||
| 9 | 22 | -4 | 29 | ||
| 10 | 17 | -8 | 18 | ||
| 10 | 22 | +1 | 29 | ||
| 11 | 17 | -3 | 17 | ||
| 11 | 23 | -3 | 27 | ||
| 12 | 23 | -17 | 17 | ||
| 12 | 17 | -15 | 13 | ||
| 13 | 19 | -28 | 8 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 40 | LWLWL |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 38 | WWDLW |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 30 | WLDLW |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 37 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Orange County SC | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 35 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Detroit City | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 28 | DLWWW |
| 4 | Louisville City | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 27 | LWLWD |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 35 | WDWLW |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 26 | WLLWL |
| 5 | San Antonio | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 35 | WWLDW |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 36 | 2 | 34 | LWWWL |
| 6 | Miami FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 22 | DLLWD |
| 7 | Sacramento Republic | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 32 | WWDWL |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 | LWWLD |
| 8 | Indy Eleven | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 21 | LLLLW |
| 8 | Lexington | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 31 | WDWLW |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 20 | LDLDL |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 29 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | WWDDL |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 30 | 1 | 29 | DDWLL |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 | WLDLD |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 27 | LLLLW |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 17 | LLLDW |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 13 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 51 | -28 | 8 | LLDWD |
