Farense vs Chaves Prediction - September 6, 2026
Alternative:1-0
Goals: Under 3.51.26
What is the prediction for Farense vs Chaves?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 1-0 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Farense are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match analysis
Chaves have lost four of their last five matches and shipped ten goals in doing it, yet both of their wins over Farense came by tidy two-goal margins, the split record behind Superior's Under 3.5 goals price of 1.26 for their Liga Portugal 2 meeting on 6 September, a 73 percent probability.
Chaves' defence has been the problem, not their attack
Chaves have conceded in every one of their last five matches, including that 1-4 defeat and a 2-2 draw, but they have also failed to score in two of them, which keeps their own attacking output capped even as their defence leaks. Farense have been streakier, a 3-1 away win sitting next to two defeats, but neither side has shown the kind of consistent firepower that reliably produces four-goal matches.
Chaves have won this fixture twice without needing goals
LOSES IF: four or more goals combined. Both of Chaves' wins over Farense came by two-goal margins built on defence, not an avalanche of goals, so history argues for a similar shape again. The risk is Farense's home attack, which scored three in their last win, meeting a Chaves side already shipping goals for fun and pushing this into shootout territory instead.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
Markets to consider
Best price we found across booksToday's acca
2 selections at 2.39
See the ticketTelegram
Daily pick and morning ticket, on Telegram.
Join free
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 22, 2026 | Chaves | 2 - 0 | Farense |
| September 28, 2025 | Farense | 0 - 2 | Chaves |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +8 | 13 | ||
| 2 | 5 | +6 | 13 | ||
| 3 | 5 | +3 | 12 | ||
| 4 | 6 | +2 | 10 | ||
| 5 | 6 | +3 | 10 | ||
| 6 | 5 | +3 | 10 | ||
| 7 | 6 | +2 | 10 | ||
| 8 | 6 | -2 | 9 | ||
| 9 | 6 | +1 | 9 | ||
| 10 | 5 | +2 | 8 | ||
| 11 | 6 | -2 | 7 | ||
| 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | ||
| 13 | 6 | -1 | 6 | ||
| 14 | 6 | -2 | 6 | ||
| 15 | 6 | -3 | 5 | ||
| 16 | 5 | -4 | 4 | ||
| 17 | 5 | -9 | 3 | ||
| 18 | 6 | -7 | 1 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penafiel | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 13 | |
| 2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 13 | |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 | |
| 4 | Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | |
| 5 | União de Leiria | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 10 | |
| 6 | Vizela | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| 7 | Leixoes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | |
| 8 | Academica | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 | |
| 9 | Tondela | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 9 | |
| 10 | Farense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 | |
| 11 | Portimonense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 | |
| 12 | AVS | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | |
| 14 | Torreense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | |
| 15 | Amarante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | |
| 16 | Chaves | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 | |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |