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Japan vs Venezuela Prediction - 28 September 2026

FriendliesWorldFull time
Japan
2-1
Venezuela

Our pick:Home win

72%Odds 1.28Won

Correct score2-0Alternative2-1

Bookmaker odds

Home1.20price falling, opened at 1.31
Draw6.65price rising, opened at 5.20
Away15.00price rising, opened at 10.00
More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.17price falling, opened at 1.21
Under 1.54.00price rising, opened at 3.58
Over 2.51.69price falling, opened at 1.82
Under 2.52.17price rising, opened at 1.98
Over 3.52.52price falling, opened at 2.83
Under 3.51.41price rising, opened at 1.33
Both teams to score
Yes2.35price rising, opened at 2.14
No1.53price falling, opened at 1.63
Odd/Even
Odd1.85
Even1.83
Handicap
Home -1.751.90
Away +1.751.90

What is the prediction for Japan vs Venezuela?

Our correct score is 2-0, then 2-1. Japan are in better form heading into this match.

Methodology

Match analysis

Japan beat Uruguay 3-1 on 24 September and have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last five, which is why Superior backs the home win in Japan vs Venezuela on 28 September. The model gives Japan a 72 percent chance at odds of 1.28, and its correct score is 2-0.

Japan scored four against Tunisia and two in the Netherlands this summer

Superior sets an expected scoring rate for each side from measured scoring and conceding, and Japan's comes from a strong run: a 2-2 draw in the Netherlands, a 4-0 win over Tunisia and a 1-1 with Sweden in June, then the Uruguay win. Venezuela average 1.6 goals, but their recent wins came against Iraq (2-0) and Australia (1-0), and they lost 1-0 in Argentina and 2-1 at home to Türkiye.

Venezuela's defence is rated 6.3 against Japan's 4.9 attack

Venezuela's defence rates 6.3 in Superior's ratings while Japan's attack sits at 4.9, the lowest figure on either side of this match. Japan also lost 2-1 in Brazil in June. A 1-1, the kind of draw Japan played with Sweden, loses the bet, and so does any Venezuela win.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

Premium

After full time

Top five correct scores

  1. 2-012.6%Our score
  2. 1-011.1%
  3. 3-09.9%
  4. 2-19.2%Alternative
  5. 1-17.6%

Top five combined: 50.4%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeJapanxG2.33
AwayVenezuelaxG0.76
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
4.6%
11%
13%
9.9%
6.0%
3.2%
1.8%
1
3.2%
7.6%
9.2%
6.9%
4.1%
1.9%
1.1%
2
1.3%
2.9%
3.1%
2.5%
1.4%
0.7%
0.4%
3
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
<0.1%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 45.6%54.4% No
Over 1.5 81.1%18.9% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 59.6%40.4% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 37.2%62.8% Under 3.5

Combos

Combos

Japan win and over 2.5 goals50.0%
Japan win and both teams score28.9%
Venezuela win and over 2.5 goals5.9%
Draw and under 2.5 goals12.2%
Outcome markets
Japan or draw89.6%
Venezuela or draw26.3%
Either team wins84.0%
Draw no bet: Japan87.6%
Draw no bet: Venezuela12.4%
Japan win to nil44.7%
Venezuela win to nil5.1%
Team goals
Japan to score90.3%
Venezuela to score50.7%
Japan over 1.5 goals67.7%
Venezuela over 1.5 goals16.7%
Japan clean sheet49.3%
Venezuela clean sheet9.7%

Today's acca

2 games, total odds 1.61

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Prediction, preview and head to head: Japan vs Venezuela