Skip to picks
Offers

Defensor Sporting vs Danubio Prediction - 27 September 2026

Primera División - AperturaUruguayFull time
Defensor Sporting
1-0
Danubio

Our pick:Under 3.5 goals

75%Odds 1.23Won

Correct score1-1Alternative1-0

Bookmaker odds

Home2.20price rising, opened at 2.18
Draw3.10price rising, opened at 3.08
Away3.04price falling, opened at 3.10
More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.33price falling, opened at 1.34
Under 1.52.81price rising, opened at 2.78
Over 2.52.12price falling, opened at 2.13
Under 2.51.62price rising, opened at 1.61
Over 3.53.84price falling, opened at 3.90
Under 3.51.18
Both teams to score
Yes1.85price falling, opened at 1.87
No1.84price rising, opened at 1.82
Odd/Even
Odd1.84
Even1.82
Handicap
Home -0.251.88price rising, opened at 1.85
Away +0.251.78price falling, opened at 1.79

What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?

Our correct score is 1-1, then 1-0. Defensor Sporting are in better form heading into this match.

Methodology

Match analysis

Defensor Sporting and Danubio have not gone past three goals in any of their last three meetings, which finished 0-0, 2-1 and 1-1. Superior backs Under 3.5 goals for 27 September; the model gives three goals or fewer a 75 percent chance and the price is 1.23.

Defensor and Danubio average 1.6 goals a game between them

Defensor average 1.2 goals scored across their last five and Danubio 0.4, and Superior's model builds its expected goals for each side from measured scoring and conceding before pricing the score grid. Against a line of 3.5, the bet survives any score up to 3-0 or 2-1. Danubio have failed to score in three of their last five, and their last two games were both 1-1 draws.

Peñarol put four past Danubio on 5 September

Danubio lost 4-0 at home to Peñarol, and Defensor have gone past the line twice themselves, losing 3-2 at Nacional on 20 September and 3-1 at home to Torque. Four goals is where this bet loses, so one open game from either defence is enough to beat it.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

More tips for this game

  • Goals: Under 2.5Won1.66
  • Correct score: 1-0Won6.00
  • Correct score: 1-1Lost5.30
Compare bookmakers

Premium

After full time

Top five correct scores

  1. 1-113.4%Our score
  2. 1-014.0%Alternative
  3. 0-011.6%
  4. 0-110.0%
  5. 2-18.7%

Top five combined: 57.7%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeDefensor SportingxG1.25
AwayDanubioxG1.00
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
12%
14%
8.1%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
<0.1%
1
10.0%
13%
8.7%
3.3%
1.0%
0.3%
<0.1%
2
4.6%
6.2%
4.2%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
<0.1%
3
1.6%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 44.9%55.1% No
Over 1.5 64.4%35.6% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 38.3%61.7% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 18.5%81.5% Under 3.5

Combos

Combos

Defensor Sporting win and over 2.5 goals20.7%
Defensor Sporting win and both teams score16.1%
Danubio win and over 2.5 goals12.7%
Draw and under 2.5 goals25.0%
Outcome markets
Defensor Sporting or draw72.6%
Danubio or draw57.2%
Either team wins70.2%
Draw no bet: Defensor Sporting61.0%
Draw no bet: Danubio39.0%
Defensor Sporting win to nil26.8%
Danubio win to nil16.7%
Team goals
Defensor Sporting to score71.7%
Danubio to score61.6%
Defensor Sporting over 1.5 goals35.5%
Danubio over 1.5 goals24.8%
Defensor Sporting clean sheet38.4%
Danubio clean sheet28.3%

Today's acca

2 games, total odds 1.61

Get the daily pick and the morning ticket on Telegram.

Join on Telegram

More Primera División - Apertura predictions

Atletico Torque
Deportivo Maldonado
Total goals: Over 1.570% 1.32
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
Total goals: Under 3.575% 1.25
Juventud
Cerro
Total goals: Under 3.574% 1.22
View all predictions
Prediction, preview and head to head: Defensor Sporting vs Danubio
Head to Head

Head to Head

Danubio
0 - 0
Defensor Sporting
26 March 2026
Defensor Sporting
2 - 1
Danubio
19 September 2025
Defensor Sporting vs Danubio: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
26 March 2026Danubio0 - 0Defensor Sporting
19 September 2025Defensor Sporting2 - 1Danubio
League Table

League Table

Primera División - AperturaUruguay · 2026/2027
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Peñarol Montevideo
2918564824+2458
2
Deportivo Maldonado
3016774627+1955
3
Atletico Torque
2916585134+1753
4
Penarol
158342316+727
4
Racing Montevideo
30141153624+1253
5
Club Nacional
30154114538+749
6
Wanderers
3013893836+247
7
Liverpool Montevideo
30121083928+1146
8
Central Espanol
30108123239-738
9
Juventud
3099123539-436
10
Defensor Sporting
30811112633-735
11
Albion FC
3097143840-234
12
Cerro Largo
3089132834-633
13
Cerro
3096152343-2033
14
Boston River
3086162942-1330
15
Progreso
3084182543-1828
16
Danubio
30414122439-1526
Primera División - Apertura - League Table
PositionTeamPlayedWonDrawnLostGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferencePointsForm
1Peñarol Montevideo29185648242458
2Deportivo Maldonado30167746271955DLDWW
3Atletico Torque29165851341753LWWLW
4Penarol158342316727WWDWL
4Racing Montevideo301411536241253WLDDD
5Club Nacional30154114538749LDWLW
6Wanderers3013893836247WWWDW
7Liverpool Montevideo301210839281146DWLDW
8Central Espanol30108123239-738DLDDW
9Juventud3099123539-436DWLDL
10Defensor Sporting30811112633-735LDDDL
11Albion FC3097143840-234DLDWL
12Cerro Largo3089132834-633LWDDW
13Cerro3096152343-2033WWLLW
14Boston River3086162942-1330LLDDL
15Progreso3084182543-1828WLLWL
16Danubio30414122439-1526DLDDD