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Bristol City vs Watford Prediction - 18 September 2026

ChampionshipEnglandFull time
Bristol City
1-0
Watford

Our pick:Under 3.5 goals

77%Odds 1.38Won

Correct score1-0Alternative1-1

5/5 Under 3.5 goals Watford · last 5 games

Form

Bristol City
  1. L 0-1
  2. L 1-4
  3. W 2-1
  4. W 3-1
  5. W 2-1
Watford
  1. L 1-2
  2. W 2-1
  3. L 0-1
  4. L 0-2
  5. D 1-1

Head to head

  1. 27 Feb 2026 Bristol City 1 Watford 2 Championship
  2. 7 Nov 2025 Watford 1 Bristol City 1 Championship

Bookmaker odds

Home1.75price falling, opened at 1.86
Draw3.94price rising, opened at 3.55
Away4.34price rising, opened at 3.99
More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.22
Under 1.54.33price rising, opened at 3.48
Over 2.51.75price falling, opened at 1.83
Under 2.52.07price rising, opened at 1.91
Over 3.52.77price falling, opened at 2.92
Under 3.51.45price rising, opened at 1.31
Both teams to score
Yes1.67price falling, opened at 1.72
No2.21price rising, opened at 2.01
Odd/Even
Odd1.87price rising, opened at 1.86
Even1.87price rising, opened at 1.82
Handicap
Home -0.751.92price falling, opened at 2.01
Away +0.751.88price rising, opened at 1.65
Methodology

Match highlights

Premium

Match analysis

Two goals a game is the gap between Bristol City and Watford this season, 2.0 to 0.8, and it is why Superior projects a 1-0 Bristol win on 18 September. A 1-1 alternate sits close behind that reading, with the home side's scoring rate carrying more weight than the recent head-to-head split.

Bristol are outscoring Watford 2.0 to 0.8 a game

That points to Superior's Poisson model, which prices each side's expected goals from measured scoring and conceding form rather than reputation, and this fixture has one of the widest scoring gaps on the board this weekend. The head-to-head record is split evenly at one win apiece and a draw across the last three meetings, so it is this season's form and not the history between these two sides doing the work here. Bristol also arrive on three days' rest after a midweek fixture, which trims their preparation time but has not stopped them scoring in every one of their last five matches.

A clean sheet is the one thing Bristol haven't managed lately

Bristol City have conceded in every one of their last five matches, so the projected 1-0 needs them to find a first shutout at exactly the moment Watford visit. Watford have been blanked in both of their last two away trips, but averaging 0.8 goals a game means a breakthrough is not a shock, and a single Watford goal is what turns this into the 1-1 that Superior lists as the next most likely score.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

More tips for this game

  • Goals: Under 3.5Won1.38
Compare bookmakers

Premium

After full time

Top five correct scores

  1. 1-012.8%Our score
  2. 1-112.5%Alternative
  3. 2-19.8%
  4. 2-09.4%
  5. 0-08.3%

Top five combined: 52.8%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeBristol CityxG1.42
AwayWatfordxG0.91
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
8.3%
13%
9.4%
4.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
1
8.0%
13%
9.8%
4.6%
1.6%
0.5%
0.2%
2
3.7%
6.1%
4.8%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
<0.1%
3
1.2%
1.7%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 49.0%51.0% No
Over 1.5 70.8%29.2% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 45.2%54.8% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 23.5%76.5% Under 3.5

Combos

  1. Bristol City win and over 2.5 goals27.7%
  2. Draw and under 2.5 goals20.9%
  3. Bristol City win and both teams score20.5%
  4. Watford win and over 2.5 goals11.9%
Bristol CityWatford
Outcome markets
Win or draw76.4%50.1%
Draw no bet67.9%32.1%
Win to nil29.4%13.3%
Either team wins73.5%
Team goals
To score78.4%62.2%
Over 1.5 goals44.7%25.0%
Clean sheet37.8%21.6%

Premium

  • Match highlights
  • Top five correct scores
  • Goals and BTTS chances
  • Combos
  • Custom Acca Builder

Today's acca

2 games, total odds 1.78

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Formations

Confirmed formations

Bristol City: 4-2-3-1(confirmed lineup)Watford: 3-4-1-2(confirmed lineup)
Prediction, preview and head to head: Bristol City vs Watford
League table

League table

ChampionshipEngland · 2026/2027
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1
Swansea
8521136+717
2
West Ham
84312211+1115
3
Middlesbrough
84311612+415
4
West Brom
7421107+314
5
QPR
8341107+313
6
Stoke City
84131312+113
7
Bristol City
84131112-113
8
Charlton
8332710-312
9
Wolves
63211410+411
10
Birmingham
82511211+111
11
Millwall
83231515011
12
Lincoln
832378-111
13
Southampton
84221910+910
14
Wrexham
8242912-310
15
Norwich
7304131309
16
Blackburn
8233121209
17
Sheffield United
8233911-29
18
Portsmouth
7223910-18
19
Watford
8224710-38
20
Cardiff
81431012-27
21
Bolton
7214712-57
22
Derby
8125714-75
23
Preston
8116815-74
24
Burnley
8044917-84
Relegation
Championship - League table
PositionTeamPlayedWonDrawnLostGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferencePointsForm
1Swansea8521136717
2West Ham843122111115
3Middlesbrough84311612415
4West Brom7421107314
5QPR8341107313
6Stoke City84131312113
7Bristol City84131112-113
8Charlton8332710-312
9Wolves63211410411
10Birmingham82511211111
11Millwall83231515011
12Lincoln832378-111
13Southampton84221910910
14Wrexham8242912-310
15Norwich7304131309
16Blackburn8233121209
17Sheffield United8233911-29
18Portsmouth7223910-18
19Watford8224710-38
20Cardiff81431012-27
21Bolton7214712-57
22Derby8125714-75
23Preston8116815-74
24Burnley8044917-84

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