Fakel vs FC Krasnodar Prediction - September 1, 2026

CupRussiaPEN
Fakel
3:4Pens
AET 1-1
FC Krasnodar
Projected scoreOur pick
0-1

Alternative:1-1

Asian Handicap: Away -0.51.48Lost

Bookmaker odds

Home4.22price falling, opened at 5.45
Draw3.66price falling, opened at 4.52
Away1.84price rising, opened at 1.54

Market move since Aug 29. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.30price rising, opened at 1.12
Under 1.53.55price falling, opened at 4.70
Over 2.51.95price rising, opened at 1.52
Under 2.51.85price falling, opened at 2.34
Over 3.53.19price rising, opened at 2.41
Under 3.51.35price falling, opened at 1.57
Both teams to score
Yes1.76price rising, opened at 1.63
No2.06price falling, opened at 2.17
Odd/Even
Odd1.90price rising, opened at 1.85
Even1.84price falling, opened at 1.85
Handicap
Home +0.751.71
Away -0.752.14

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?

The model's leading scoreline is 0 - 1, with 1-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: FC Krasnodar are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-3Methodology

Match highlights

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Match analysis

An Asian Handicap of minus 0.5 on Krasnodar, away at Fakel in the Russian Cup on 1 September, is Superior's pick, available at 1.48. The model backs that cover at 68 percent confidence, built on a Krasnodar defence rated 6.8 against a Fakel attack rated just 6.0.

Krasnodar's defence rating of 6.8 is well clear of Fakel's 6.0 attack rating

That gap matters here because an Asian Handicap of minus 0.5 only requires a straight win, and Krasnodar have delivered exactly that in each of their last five matches, including three by a two-goal margin or more. Fakel, by contrast, have not won any of their own last five, drawing twice and losing the other three, one of them 2-3. The two previous meetings between these sides also went to Krasnodar, 3-2 and 5-0.

Fakel have held two of their last five games goalless

Two 0-0 scorelines in Fakel's recent form show they can still shut a game down when they need to, and both of those clean sheets came at this ground. LOSES IF: this match finishes level or Fakel win outright, since an Asian Handicap of minus 0.5 on Krasnodar needs nothing less than an away victory to land.

Written by the Superior Football Desk · Text drafted by claude-sonnet-5

AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.

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Post match archive

Grade: LOST

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 0-116.6%Projected
  2. 0-212.4%
  3. 1-111.6%Alternative
  4. 0-011.0%
  5. 1-28.7%

Top five combined: 60.3%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeFakelxG0.70
AwayFC KrasnodarxG1.50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
11%
7.8%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1
17%
12%
4.1%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
2
12%
8.7%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
3
6.2%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
4
2.3%
1.6%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6+
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 39.3%60.7% No
Over 1.5 64.7%35.3% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 37.9%62.1% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 18.2%81.8% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Fakel win and over 2.5 goals7.0%
Fakel win and both teams score6.2%
FC Krasnodar win and over 2.5 goals27.4%
Draw and under 2.5 goals22.7%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Fakel or draw43.6%
FC Krasnodar or draw82.5%
Either team wins73.9%
Draw no bet: Fakel23.6%
Draw no bet: FC Krasnodar76.4%
Fakel win to nil11.3%
FC Krasnodar win to nil38.5%
Team goals
Fakel to score50.5%
FC Krasnodar to score77.7%
Fakel over 1.5 goals15.7%
FC Krasnodar over 1.5 goals44.3%
Fakel clean sheet22.3%
FC Krasnodar clean sheet49.5%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

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Today's acca

2 selections at 1.73

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Team news

Expected formations

FC Krasnodar: 4-2-3-1(predicted)
Prediction, preview and head to head: Fakel vs FC Krasnodar
Head to Head

Head to Head

FC Krasnodar
3 - 2
Fakel
August 2, 2026
FC Krasnodar
5 - 0
Fakel
March 30, 2025
Fakel vs FC Krasnodar: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
August 2, 2026FC Krasnodar3 - 2Fakel
March 30, 2025FC Krasnodar5 - 0Fakel