Romania vs Sweden Prediction - 5 October 2026
Our pick:Over 1.5 goals
82%Odds 1.20
Correct score1-1Alternative1-2
What is the prediction for Romania vs Sweden?
Our correct score is 1-1, then 1-2. Romania are in better form heading into this match.
Match analysis
Sweden's defence carries a 4.6 rating into Romania vs Sweden on 5 October, the lowest of the four units on the pitch, and they have conceded in each of their last five games. Superior's pick is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, which the model rates at 82 percent, with 1-1 as its correct score.
Every Sweden game in the last five had two or more goals
Sweden beat Poland 3-1 on 28 September and Tunisia 5-1 in June, and lost 0-3 in France and 1-5 in the Netherlands. Their attack rating of 5.0 sits a point below Romania's defence, and they still scored in four of those five. The model weighs both teams' measured attack and defence strength into expected goals, and Sweden's defence is what keeps goalless and single-goal results to a small share of the distribution.
Romania beat Austria 1-0 in October 2025
That 1-0 is a result this pick cannot survive, along with 0-0 and 0-1. Romania score 1.2 goals a game, have not scored more than twice in any of their last five and lost 0-2 in Slovakia in March. If Romania keep Sweden out and score once, a 1-0 loses this bet.
Today's acca
2 games, total odds 1.60Get the daily pick and the morning ticket on Telegram.
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