Moss vs Kongsvinger IL Prediction - 5 October 2026
Our pick:Over 2.5 goals
80%Odds 1.26Lost
Correct score1-2Alternative2-4
Form
- D 1-1
- W 2-1
- L 1-4
- W 3-2
- L 1-2
- W 5-1
- W 3-2
- D 1-1
- W 9-1
- D 4-4
Match highlights
PremiumMatch analysis
Kongsvinger come to Moss in the title race, while Moss sit in the relegation fight and have conceded in each of their last five games. Superior's pick for Moss vs Kongsvinger on 5 October is Over 2.5 goals at 1.26, rated an 80 percent chance by the model, and its correct score is 1-2.
Kongsvinger score 4.4 goals a game and Moss leak every week
Kongsvinger beat Raufoss 9-1 and Hodd 5-1 and drew 4-4 with Lyn, while Moss score 1.8 a game and went 2-1 at Sandnes, 1-4 against Haugesund and 3-2 at Stabaek. Every one of Moss's last five games had at least three goals. The model builds an expected scoring rate for each side from what it scores and concedes, pulls thin samples back toward the league baseline, and prices every scoreline on a Poisson grid. Even after that pull, a game with two goals or fewer is a small corner of the result.
Kongsvinger drew 1-1 at Egersund on 13 September
That 1-1 is the kind of result that loses this pick, along with 1-0, 2-0 or 0-0. Kongsvinger scored once that day, and Moss scored only once in two of their last five. A narrow 1-0 or 2-0 away win, with Moss blanked for once, would also leave the total at two or fewer.
More tips for this game
- Asian Handicap: Away -0.25
- Asian Handicap: Away -0.5
- Match Winner: Away
- Asian Handicap: Away -1.25
- Goals: Over 2.5
Premium
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-28.3%Our score
- 1-17.1%
- 1-36.0%
- 2-25.8%
- 0-25.4%
Top five combined: 32.6%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Kongsvinger IL win and over 2.5 goals44.0%
- Moss win and over 2.5 goals20.5%
- Moss win and both teams score17.2%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals9.6%
| Moss | Kongsvinger IL | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 45.5% | 72.8% |
| Draw no bet | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Win to nil | 10.0% | 20.9% |
| Either team wins | 81.7% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 76.7% | 87.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 44.3% | 65.0% |
| Clean sheet | 12.5% | 23.3% |
Today's acca
2 games, total odds 1.63League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | +43 | 60 | ||
| 2 | 27 | +39 | 59 | ||
| 3 | 27 | +33 | 59 | ||
| 4 | 27 | +30 | 52 | ||
| 5 | 27 | +13 | 45 | ||
| 6 | 27 | -1 | 39 | ||
| 7 | 27 | -6 | 38 | ||
| 8 | 27 | +1 | 35 | ||
| 9 | 27 | -11 | 34 | ||
| 10 | 27 | -11 | 33 | ||
| 11 | 27 | -16 | 31 | ||
| 12 | 27 | -16 | 29 | ||
| 13 | 27 | -17 | 26 | ||
| 14 | 26 | -17 | 24 | ||
| 15 | 27 | -24 | 23 | ||
| 16 | 26 | -40 | 20 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stromsgodset | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 76 | 33 | 43 | 60 | WDLDD |
| 2 | Kongsvinger IL | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 81 | 42 | 39 | 59 | |
| 3 | Haugesund | 27 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 78 | 45 | 33 | 59 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Stabaek | 27 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 64 | 34 | 30 | 52 | WWWWL |
| 5 | ODD Ballklubb | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 54 | 41 | 13 | 45 | WDLDD |
| 6 | Bryne | 27 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 39 | LWDLW |
| 7 | hodd | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 38 | WLWWD |
| 8 | Ranheim | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 68 | 67 | 1 | 35 | LLLLW |
| 9 | Egersund | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 34 | WDWLW |
| 10 | Strommen | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 33 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Lyn | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 41 | 57 | -16 | 31 | WDWLL |
| 12 | Moss | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 29 | LLLLL |
| 13 | Sandnes ULF | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 26 | LLDWW |
| 14 | Sogndal | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 59 | -17 | 24 | LWLWL |
| 15 | Asane | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 61 | -24 | 23 | LDLWL |
| 16 | Raufoss | 26 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 29 | 69 | -40 | 20 | LWWLW |