France vs Belgium Prediction

Our pick:Over 1.5 goals

85%Odds 1.19

Picked at 1.19 · now 1.17

Correct score1-1Alternative1-2

Bookmaker odds

Home1.54

Draw4.46

Away5.45

All oddsPremium

What is the prediction for France vs Belgium?

Our correct score is 1-1, then 1-2. Both teams are in similar form heading into this match.

Methodology

Match analysis

Superior's pick for France vs Belgium on 5 October is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Both attacks are rated higher than the defence they face, and the model gives two or more goals an 85 percent chance in this rematch of France's 1-0 win in Belgium on 28 September, with 1-1 as its correct score.

France's 6.8 attack rating meets a Belgium defence rated 6.3

Belgium's attack is rated 6.7 against a French defence rated 6.2, so on both sides the attack is the stronger unit in its matchup. The model folds those measured strengths into expected goals for each team and prices the full score distribution, and with both attacks ahead a goalless or single-goal game is a small slice of it. Belgium score 2.4 goals a game, including a 2-0 win in Italy on 25 September.

France won both September games 1-0

France beat Turkey 1-0 on 25 September and Belgium 1-0 three days later, and a third 1-0 either way would lose this pick, as would 0-0. France kept clean sheets in both of those games, so the bet needs either a Belgium goal or a second French one.

Written by the Superior Football Desk