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UEFA Nations League

Luxembourg vs Iceland

Correct score
1 - 1
Alternative score
0 - 1
Featured pick
Goals: Under 3.5 @ 1.29
Match page

Match analysis

Luxembourg lost 1-0 at home to Italy in June and won 1-0 in Albania three days later, and Superior expects the same kind of low total when Luxembourg vs Iceland is played on 29 September. The pick is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, which the model rates at 76 percent.

Iceland have scored three goals in five games

Superior's score grid starts from each side's expected scoring rate, and neither rate here points to a flood. Iceland average 0.6 goals a game from a run that included defeats of 3-0 in Argentina and 1-0 in Japan, while Luxembourg average 1.2. None of Luxembourg's last five games produced more than three goals: 0-1, 1-0, 3-0, 2-0 and 0-2. The correct score is 1-1, with a 0-1 Iceland win the alternative.

Iceland drew 2-2 in Canada and lost 4-0 in Mexico

Both of those results would have beaten this line, because Under 3.5 loses at four goals and a 2-2 is enough. Iceland shared four goals in Canada in March after conceding four in Mexico in February, so their away games have not always stayed tight. If Luxembourg's attack finds the form that put three past Malta in March while Iceland score twice, a 3-1 or a 2-2 would beat the pick.

Bookmaker odds

Home3.36price rising, opened at 2.79
Draw3.38price rising, opened at 3.36
Away2.17price falling, opened at 2.52
More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.33price rising, opened at 1.31
Under 1.52.98price falling, opened at 3.08
Over 2.52.11price rising, opened at 2.05
Under 2.51.73price falling, opened at 1.77
Over 3.53.56price rising, opened at 3.48
Under 3.51.24price falling, opened at 1.25
Both teams to score
Yes1.84price rising, opened at 1.78
No1.88price falling, opened at 1.95
Odd/Even
Odd1.86
Even1.84
Handicap
Home +0.251.92
Away -0.251.83

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Match History

Head to Head

These two have never met in our records.

Recent Form

Head to Head

Iceland vs Luxembourg: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
26 September 2026Iceland1 - 1Estonia
10 June 2026Argentina3 - 0Iceland
31 May 2026Japan1 - 0Iceland
31 March 2026Haiti1 - 1Iceland
28 March 2026Canada2 - 2Iceland

Head to Head

Luxembourg vs Iceland: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
26 September 2026Bulgaria1 - 2Luxembourg
6 June 2026Albania0 - 1Luxembourg
3 June 2026Luxembourg0 - 1Italy
31 March 2026Luxembourg3 - 0Malta