Estoril vs Arouca Prediction - September 7, 2026
Alternative:2-1
Goals: Over 1.51.27Lost
What is the prediction for Estoril vs Arouca?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 2-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Arouca are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match analysis
Estoril and Arouca have combined for 14 goals across their last three meetings, and that history is a big part of why Superior takes Over 1.5 goals in Estoril vs Arouca on 7 September at 1.27, with 64 percent confidence. The most one-sided of those three finished 4-3 to Estoril.
These two have produced 14 goals in their last three meetings
An average of well over four goals a match in recent head to head play is a rare number, and it is backed up by Arouca's own current form: three wins in their last five and 1.4 goals a game on the road. Estoril have been much quieter at 0.6 a game themselves, but this fixture's history suggests goals tend to arrive from somewhere even when one side is struggling.
Estoril have not scored more than once in four of their last five
Estoril's own attack is the risk this bet is taking. They have not scored more than once in any of their last five matches and were shut out twice in that run. If Arouca's defence holds them scoreless and the away side themselves fail to add a second, a single goal is enough to sink this line, and Estoril's home form gives that scenario real weight even against a high scoring head to head record.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
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Grade: LOST
This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.
Scoreline Depth
- 1-110.8%Projected
- 2-19.1%Alternative
- 1-07.8%
- 1-27.5%
- 2-06.6%
Top five combined: 41.8%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Market Probability View
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Full Market Board
Correlated combos
Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.
Outcome markets
Team goals
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Today's acca
2 selections at 1.73
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Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 6, 2026 | Arouca | 3 - 2 | Estoril |
| November 7, 2025 | Estoril | 4 - 3 | Arouca |
| March 16, 2025 | Arouca | 1 - 1 | Estoril |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +10 | 15 | ||
| 2 | 5 | +15 | 13 | ||
| 3 | 5 | +9 | 13 | ||
| 4 | 5 | +6 | 11 | ||
| 5 | 5 | +4 | 10 | ||
| 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 | ||
| 7 | 3 | +2 | 7 | ||
| 8 | 5 | -2 | 7 | ||
| 9 | 4 | +1 | 6 | ||
| 10 | 5 | -3 | 5 | ||
| 11 | 5 | -2 | 4 | ||
| 12 | 5 | -2 | 4 | ||
| 13 | 5 | -8 | 4 | ||
| 14 | 5 | -2 | 3 | ||
| 15 | 5 | -9 | 3 | ||
| 16 | 5 | -5 | 2 | ||
| 17 | 5 | -5 | 2 | ||
| 18 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | |
| 2 | Benfica | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 13 | |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | |
| 5 | Arouca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 | |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| 7 | SC Braga | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| 8 | Maritimo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | |
| 9 | Estrela | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 6 | |
| 10 | Academico Viseu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | |
| 11 | Guimaraes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | |
| 12 | Nacional | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | |
| 13 | Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 | |
| 14 | Famalicao | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 | |
| 16 | Estoril | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 | |
| 17 | Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 |