Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction - September 6, 2026

Leagues CupWorldFull time
Toluca
2:0
Monterrey
Projected scoreOur pick
3-1

Alternative:2-2

Goals: Over 1.51.31Won

Bookmaker odds

Home2.07
Draw3.62price rising, opened at 3.50
Away3.24price falling, opened at 3.35

Market move since Sep 6. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.18price falling, opened at 1.24
Under 1.53.95price rising, opened at 3.38
Over 2.51.68price falling, opened at 1.86
Under 2.52.14price rising, opened at 1.91
Over 3.52.57price falling, opened at 2.99
Under 3.51.40price rising, opened at 1.30
Both teams to score
Yes1.57price falling, opened at 1.69
No2.25price rising, opened at 2.05
Odd/Even
Odd1.84price falling, opened at 1.85
Even1.84price rising, opened at 1.83
Handicap
Home -0.251.79price rising, opened at 1.76
Away +0.251.96price falling, opened at 1.99

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Toluca vs Monterrey?

The model's leading scoreline is 3 - 1, with 2-2 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Toluca are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-4Methodology

Why this prediction

  • Toluca and Monterrey average 4.2 goals a match between them, against a line of 1.5.

Markets to consider

Best price we found across books
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Premium model depth

Unlocked after full time

Post match archive

Grade: WON

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 3-17.9%Projected
  2. 2-17.1%
  3. 4-16.6%
  4. 3-06.4%
  5. 2-05.8%

Top five combined: 33.8%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeTolucaxG3.35
AwayMonterreyxG1.23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
1.0%
3.4%
5.8%
6.4%
5.4%
3.6%
3.6%
1
1.3%
4.2%
7.1%
7.9%
6.6%
4.4%
4.4%
2
0.8%
2.6%
4.3%
4.9%
4.1%
2.7%
2.7%
3
0.3%
1.1%
1.8%
2.0%
1.7%
1.1%
1.1%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
5
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
6+
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 68.3%31.7% No
Over 1.5 94.3%5.7% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 83.5%16.5% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 67.1%32.9% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Toluca win and over 2.5 goals68.6%
Toluca win and both teams score49.5%
Monterrey win and over 2.5 goals8.0%
Draw and under 2.5 goals5.2%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Toluca or draw90.0%
Monterrey or draw22.2%
Either team wins87.8%
Draw no bet: Toluca88.6%
Draw no bet: Monterrey11.4%
Toluca win to nil28.2%
Monterrey win to nil2.5%
Team goals
Toluca to score96.5%
Monterrey to score70.8%
Toluca over 1.5 goals84.8%
Monterrey over 1.5 goals34.8%
Toluca clean sheet29.2%
Monterrey clean sheet3.5%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Today's acca

3 selections at 1.95

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Team news

Expected formations

Toluca: 4-2-3-1(predicted)
Prediction, preview and head to head: Toluca vs Monterrey
Head to Head

Head to Head

Toluca
3 - 2
Monterrey
December 7, 2025
Monterrey
1 - 0
Toluca
December 4, 2025
Toluca
6 - 2
Monterrey
September 25, 2025
Toluca
2 - 1
Monterrey
May 11, 2025
Monterrey
3 - 2
Toluca
May 6, 2025
Toluca vs Monterrey: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
December 7, 2025Toluca3 - 2Monterrey
December 4, 2025Monterrey1 - 0Toluca
September 25, 2025Toluca6 - 2Monterrey
May 11, 2025Toluca2 - 1Monterrey
May 6, 2025Monterrey3 - 2Toluca