Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction - September 6, 2026

Premier LeagueEnglandFull time
Arsenal
2:1
Chelsea
Projected scoreOur pick
2-1

Alternative:1-1

Asian Handicap: Home +0.51.20Won

Bookmaker odds

Home1.74price rising, opened at 1.71
Draw3.90price rising, opened at 3.72
Away4.48price falling, opened at 5.00

Market move since Sep 3. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.22
Under 1.54.30price rising, opened at 3.74
Over 2.51.76
Under 2.52.06
Over 3.52.81price rising, opened at 2.68
Under 3.51.44price rising, opened at 1.40
Both teams to score
Yes1.67price falling, opened at 1.71
No2.21price rising, opened at 2.04
Odd/Even
Odd1.87price falling, opened at 1.90
Even1.87price rising, opened at 1.80
Handicap
Home -0.751.93price rising, opened at 1.85
Away +0.751.87

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Arsenal vs Chelsea?

The model's leading scoreline is 2 - 1, with 1-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Arsenal are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-4Methodology

Match highlights

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Why this prediction

  • Arsenal won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
  • Arsenal won 5 of their last 5 matches; Chelsea won 4 of 5.
  • Counter signalChelsea average 3.2 goals per match against 2.0 for Arsenal.

Markets to consider

Best price we found across books
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Premium model depth

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Post match archive

Grade: WON

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 2-18.4%Projected
  2. 3-17.2%
  3. 1-16.6%Alternative
  4. 2-26.4%
  5. 2-05.6%

Top five combined: 34.2%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeArsenalxG2.57
AwayChelseaxG1.51
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
1.7%
4.3%
5.6%
4.8%
3.1%
1.6%
1.0%
1
2.6%
6.6%
8.4%
7.2%
4.6%
2.4%
1.6%
2
1.9%
5.0%
6.4%
5.5%
3.5%
1.8%
1.2%
3
1.0%
2.5%
3.2%
2.7%
1.8%
0.9%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.9%
1.2%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.2%
5
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
6+
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 71.9%28.1% No
Over 1.5 91.4%8.6% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 77.3%22.7% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 58.2%41.8% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Arsenal win and over 2.5 goals50.5%
Arsenal win and both teams score40.1%
Chelsea win and over 2.5 goals16.9%
Draw and under 2.5 goals8.3%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Arsenal or draw78.6%
Chelsea or draw39.5%
Either team wins81.9%
Draw no bet: Arsenal73.9%
Draw no bet: Chelsea26.1%
Arsenal win to nil20.4%
Chelsea win to nil6.0%
Team goals
Arsenal to score92.3%
Chelsea to score77.9%
Arsenal over 1.5 goals72.7%
Chelsea over 1.5 goals44.5%
Arsenal clean sheet22.1%
Chelsea clean sheet7.7%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

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Today's acca

2 selections at 1.73

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Team news

Expected formations

Chelsea: 3-4-3(predicted)
Prediction, preview and head to head: Arsenal vs Chelsea
Head to Head

Head to Head

Arsenal vs Chelsea: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
March 1, 2026Arsenal2 - 1Chelsea
February 3, 2026Arsenal1 - 0Chelsea
January 14, 2026Chelsea2 - 3Arsenal
November 30, 2025Chelsea1 - 1Arsenal
March 16, 2025Arsenal1 - 0Chelsea
League Table

League Table

Premier LeagueEngland · 2026/2027
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1330072+59
2321030+37
3220040+46
4220075+26
5312052+35
6312064+25
7312064+25
8312032+15
9311185+34
10211031+24
1131113304
12210154+13
13310248-43
14310248-43
15302145-12
16302123-12
1700000000
17301205-51
18301205-51
19300347-30
20300305-50
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Premier League - League Table
PositionTeamPlayedWonDrawnLostGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferencePointsForm
1Manchester City33007259
2Hull City32103037
3Arsenal22004046
4Chelsea22007526
5Brentford31205235
6Liverpool31206425
7Newcastle United31206425
8Leeds31203215
9Brighton31118534
10Everton21103124
11Sunderland31113304
12Manchester United21015413
13Crystal Palace310248-43
14Ipswich310248-43
15Bournemouth302145-12
16Nottingham Forest302123-12
17Newcastle00000000
17Aston Villa301205-51
18Tottenham301205-51
19Fulham300347-30
20Coventry300305-50