Cruz Azul vs Toluca Prediction - September 26, 2026
Alternative:2-3
Goals: Over 1.51.23
What is the prediction for Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 2-3 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Toluca are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match analysis
Cruz Azul and Toluca have met three times since April 2025, and the 2-2 and 1-1 among them would both have landed Over 1.5 goals, Superior's pick for their meeting on 26 September. At 1.23 the model rates it at 74 percent, driven by a Toluca side with 12 goals in its last five.
Two of the last three meetings reached two goals
The recent meetings finished 2-2 in April 2025, 1-0 to Cruz Azul in August 2025 and 1-1 in February, with Toluca at home for the draws. The model builds its projection from both teams' measured scoring, and both rates are live: Toluca beat Atlas 5-2 and Monterrey 2-0 this month, while Cruz Azul put four past Club America in a 4-3 win and three past Necaxa.
Cruz Azul have failed to score in their last two
Cruz Azul lost 1-0 at Monterrey on 20 September and 2-0 to Inter Miami three days earlier, and the 1-0 in August 2025 is the exact shape that loses this pick. If Cruz Azul stay blank again, a 0-1 Toluca win or a 0-0 is enough to beat it. Toluca did concede three at home to Santos Laguna last time out, which is the counterweight to that worry.
AI-assisted analysis, written from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
Markets to consider
Best price we found across booksToday's acca
2 selections at 1.74
See the ticketTelegram
Daily pick and morning ticket, on Telegram.
Join free
Betting Offers
18+ or the legal age in your country. Some links on this page are affiliate links.
More Liga MX Predictions
Team news
Expected formations
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 7, 2026 | Toluca | 1 - 1 | Cruz Azul |
| August 24, 2025 | Cruz Azul | 1 - 0 | Toluca |
| April 20, 2025 | Toluca | 2 - 2 | Cruz Azul |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +12 | 19 | ||
| 2 | 9 | +9 | 18 | ||
| 3 | 8 | +9 | 17 | ||
| 4 | 9 | +1 | 15 | ||
| 5 | 9 | 0 | 14 | ||
| 6 | 9 | -2 | 14 | ||
| 7 | 8 | +4 | 13 | ||
| 8 | 7 | +3 | 13 | ||
| 9 | 8 | +2 | 13 | ||
| 10 | 7 | +2 | 13 | ||
| 11 | 9 | -1 | 12 | ||
| 12 | 8 | +5 | 11 | ||
| 13 | 9 | -5 | 9 | ||
| 14 | 9 | -5 | 8 | ||
| 15 | 9 | -6 | 8 | ||
| 16 | 9 | -4 | 7 | ||
| 17 | 8 | -7 | 4 | ||
| 18 | 9 | -17 | 3 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 19 | WLW |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 18 | DWL |
| 3 | Club America | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 17 | WDW |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 15 | LWW |
| 5 | Puebla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 | DLW |
| 6 | Atlas | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 | LWW |
| 7 | Monterrey | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 13 | WLW |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWL |
| 9 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 | WLL |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | DWW |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 | WWL |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 11 | LLW |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 | DDL |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 8 | WDL |
| 15 | Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 | LWW |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 | LDL |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | LLL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 | LLL |