Burnley vs Middlesbrough Prediction - September 2, 2026
Alternative:0-1
Goals: Under 3.51.32Won
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 0-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Middlesbrough are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match highlights
PremiumMatch analysis
Under 3.5 goals is the pick in Burnley vs Middlesbrough on 2 September, priced at 1.32 and rated 73 percent by Superior's model. Burnley have won only once in five matches and Middlesbrough three times in their own five, but neither side has strayed far from one and two-goal margins across that run.
Burnley have taken one win from their last five
Burnley's recent run reads a 4-1 defeat at Norwich, a 3-1 loss at West Brom and a 2-2 home draw with West Ham, one win in five against Notts County and only two goals scored across their two heaviest defeats combined. Middlesbrough have won three of five, including a 3-1 win over West Brom, the same side Burnley also lost to, and their matches have mostly settled on a single goal either way rather than a flood.
Both sides have already been part of four-goal matches
The way this line gets beaten is a repeat of Burnley's 4-1 defeat at Norwich, four goals inside ninety minutes against a mid-table Championship side. Burnley have shipped seven goals across their last two matches alone, and if that shakier form resurfaces rather than the tighter one-goal games both clubs have also produced recently, the total clears 3.5 on its own.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
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Grade: WON
This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.
Scoreline Depth
- 1-112.5%Projected
- 0-19.5%Alternative
- 1-09.5%
- 1-28.2%
- 2-18.2%
Top five combined: 47.9%
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Score Matrix
Market Probability View
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
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Correlated combos
Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.
Outcome markets
Team goals
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Today's acca
2 selections at 2.07
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Team news
Expected formations
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +6 | 10 | ||
| 2 | 4 | +4 | 10 | ||
| 3 | 4 | +3 | 10 | ||
| 4 | 4 | +3 | 7 | ||
| 5 | 4 | +2 | 7 | ||
| 6 | 4 | +1 | 7 | ||
| 7 | 4 | +1 | 7 | ||
| 8 | 4 | +1 | 6 | ||
| 9 | 4 | +1 | 6 | ||
| 10 | 4 | -2 | 6 | ||
| 11 | 4 | +2 | 5 | ||
| 12 | 4 | +1 | 5 | ||
| 13 | 4 | 0 | 5 | ||
| 14 | 4 | -1 | 5 | ||
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 15 | 4 | -1 | 4 | ||
| 16 | 4 | -2 | 4 | ||
| 17 | 4 | -2 | 4 | ||
| 18 | 4 | +5 | 3 | ||
| 19 | 4 | -1 | 3 | ||
| 20 | 4 | -2 | 3 | ||
| 21 | 4 | -3 | 3 | ||
| 22 | 4 | -5 | 3 | ||
| 23 | 4 | -5 | 2 | ||
| 24 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 10 | |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 | |
| 3 | Charlton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| 4 | Wolves | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| 6 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
| 7 | West Brom | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
| 8 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| 9 | Sheffield United | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| 10 | Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 | |
| 11 | Wrexham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | |
| 12 | West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 | |
| 13 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 14 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 | |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | |
| 16 | Derby | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | |
| 17 | Lincoln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | |
| 18 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | |
| 22 | Stoke City | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 | |
| 23 | Burnley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | |
| 24 | Preston | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 0 |
