Derby vs Birmingham Prediction - September 12, 2026
Alternative:0-1
Goals: Under 3.51.32
What is the prediction for Derby vs Birmingham?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 0-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Birmingham are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match analysis
Four matches in fourteen days have left Derby leaning on a tight scoreline against Birmingham on 12 September, where Superior backs Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, a 77 percent read on the pick. Tired legs on a short week rarely produce an open Championship match.
Derby have played four matches in fourteen days
Fixture load favours the under here: Derby are into their fourth match in a fortnight on two days' rest, while Birmingham have had the same short turnaround without the extra congestion. Derby have lost three of their last five, conceding ten goals in that spell, but their attack has not matched that leakiness, scoring five of their own in the same run.
The other worry is Birmingham's leaky defence
The risk is that neither defence has been settled lately. Birmingham have shipped twelve goals in their last five, including a 1-6 defeat, proof goals follow their matches even when they are the side conceding them. This loses if the two sides combine for four goals or more, and a Birmingham side that has been on the wrong end of a scoreline like that this season is not a safe bet to keep it tight against a tiring Derby defence either.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
Markets to consider
Best price we found across booksToday's acca
2 selections at 1.73
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More Championship Predictions
Team news
Expected formations
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 21, 2026 | Derby | 1 - 0 | Birmingham |
| December 26, 2025 | Birmingham | 1 - 1 | Derby |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +3 | 13 | ||
| 2 | 6 | +5 | 11 | ||
| 3 | 6 | +4 | 11 | ||
| 4 | 6 | +3 | 11 | ||
| 5 | 6 | -1 | 11 | ||
| 6 | 5 | +3 | 10 | ||
| 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 | ||
| 8 | 5 | +2 | 9 | ||
| 9 | 6 | +1 | 9 | ||
| 10 | 6 | 0 | 9 | ||
| 11 | 5 | +3 | 8 | ||
| 12 | 6 | -1 | 8 | ||
| 13 | 6 | +7 | 7 | ||
| 14 | 6 | +2 | 7 | ||
| 15 | 6 | 0 | 7 | ||
| 16 | 6 | -1 | 7 | ||
| 17 | 5 | -1 | 6 | ||
| 18 | 6 | -2 | 5 | ||
| 19 | 5 | -2 | 5 | ||
| 20 | 6 | -3 | 4 | ||
| 21 | 6 | -6 | 4 | ||
| 22 | 6 | -6 | 4 | ||
| 23 | 6 | -6 | 3 | ||
| 24 | 6 | -6 | 3 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | |
| 2 | West Ham | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 11 | |
| 3 | Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | |
| 4 | QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | |
| 5 | Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | |
| 7 | Bristol City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | |
| 8 | Millwall | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 | |
| 9 | Norwich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 9 | |
| 10 | Sheffield United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | |
| 11 | Wolves | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 8 | |
| 12 | Watford | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 | |
| 13 | Southampton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
| 14 | Wrexham | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| 15 | Birmingham | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | |
| 16 | Stoke City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 | |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 | |
| 18 | Blackburn | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | |
| 19 | Lincoln | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 | |
| 20 | Cardiff | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | |
| 21 | Bolton | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | |
| 22 | Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | |
| 23 | Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | |
| 24 | Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 |
