Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction - September 11, 2026

First LeagueBulgariaFull time
Cherno More Varna
2:2
Lokomotiv Sofia
Projected scoreOur pick
1-1

Alternative:1-0

Goals: Under 3.51.33Lost

Bookmaker odds

Home2.02price rising, opened at 2.00
Draw3.46price falling, opened at 3.48
Away3.45price falling, opened at 3.49

Market move since Sep 10. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.25price falling, opened at 1.26
Under 1.53.28price rising, opened at 3.20
Over 2.51.87price falling, opened at 1.89
Under 2.51.88price rising, opened at 1.86
Over 3.53.05price falling, opened at 3.08
Under 3.51.28
Both teams to score
Yes1.72price falling, opened at 1.74
No2.01price rising, opened at 1.98
Odd/Even
Odd1.85
Even1.85
Handicap
Home -0.251.73price rising, opened at 1.71
Away +0.252.01price falling, opened at 2.04

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

What is the prediction for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?

The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 1-0 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Cherno More Varna are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.

Model CS-7Methodology

Why this prediction

  • Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia average 2.8 goals a match between them, against a line of 3.5.

Markets to consider

Best price we found across books
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Premium model depth

Unlocked after full time

Post match archive

Grade: LOST

This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.

Scoreline Depth

  1. 1-112.6%Projected
  2. 1-010.6%Alternative
  3. 0-19.3%
  4. 2-18.6%
  5. 0-07.8%

Top five combined: 48.9%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeCherno More VarnaxG1.36
AwayLokomotiv SofiaxG1.19
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
7.8%
11%
7.2%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
1
9.3%
13%
8.6%
3.9%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
2
5.6%
7.5%
5.1%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
3
2.2%
3.0%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
5
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6+
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Market Probability View

Both teams to score Yes 51.7%48.3% No
Over 1.5 72.2%27.8% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 46.8%53.2% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 25.3%74.7% Under 3.5

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Full Market Board

Correlated combos

Cherno More Varna win and over 2.5 goals22.8%
Cherno More Varna win and both teams score18.0%
Lokomotiv Sofia win and over 2.5 goals17.9%
Draw and under 2.5 goals20.5%

Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.

Outcome markets
Cherno More Varna or draw67.2%
Lokomotiv Sofia or draw59.4%
Either team wins73.4%
Draw no bet: Cherno More Varna55.3%
Draw no bet: Lokomotiv Sofia44.7%
Cherno More Varna win to nil22.6%
Lokomotiv Sofia win to nil17.9%
Team goals
Cherno More Varna to score74.2%
Lokomotiv Sofia to score69.6%
Cherno More Varna over 1.5 goals39.3%
Lokomotiv Sofia over 1.5 goals33.4%
Cherno More Varna clean sheet30.4%
Lokomotiv Sofia clean sheet25.8%

Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.

Today's acca

2 selections at 2.39

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Team news

Confirmed formations

Cherno More Varna: 4-2-3-1(confirmed lineup)Lokomotiv Sofia: 4-2-3-1(confirmed lineup)
Prediction, preview and head to head: Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Head to Head

Head to Head

Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia: Head-to-Head History
DateHomeScoreAway
November 22, 2025Cherno More Varna0 - 1Lokomotiv Sofia
July 18, 2025Lokomotiv Sofia1 - 1Cherno More Varna
League Table

League Table

First LeagueBulgaria · 2026/2027
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
19810214+1725
28620216+1520
2330051+49
38620146+820
49612179+819
595131411+316
694141314-113
7925286+211
892431014-410
99225717-108
108224713-68
119207412-86
1291261019-95
1380441016-64
149117817-94
Relegation
First League - League Table
PositionTeamPlayedWonDrawnLostGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferencePointsForm
1Levski Sofia98102141725WWW
2CSKA Sofia86202161520WWD
2Ludogorets Razgrad33005149
3Ludogorets8620146820WWW
4CSKA 19489612179819WWD
5Arda Kardzhali95131411316LWD
6Botev Plovdiv94141314-113WLD
7Slavia Sofia925286211DLD
8Spartak Varna92431014-410WWD
9Botev Vratsa9225717-108LLD
10Septemvri Sofia8224713-68LLD
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv9207412-86LWL
12Cherno More Varna91261019-95LLD
13Lokomotiv Sofia80441016-64DLD
14Dunav Ruse9117817-94LLL