Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction - September 1, 2026
Alternative:2-1
Goals: Over 1.51.35Won
What is the prediction for Portsmouth vs Derby?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 1, with 2-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Derby are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match highlights
PremiumMatch analysis
Three meetings, three one-goal margins: that is the recent head-to-head between Portsmouth and Derby, and it lines up with Superior's projection for their Championship fixture on 1 September. The model backs a 1-1 draw, with 2-1 the alternate score, in a match where both sides' underlying numbers point to another tight result.
None of the last three meetings between these sides has been decided by more than one goal
A 0-1 home loss and two draws, 1-1 and 2-2, make up Portsmouth's recent head-to-head record against Derby, and both sides' underlying numbers point to another tight game. Derby's attack rating of 6.4 is a touch higher than Portsmouth's defence rating of 6.3, a narrow gap that fits a fixture with a 1.2 to 1.4 split in goals scored per game rather than anything more one-sided.
Portsmouth's own last five includes two defeats by two clear goals
A pair of 1-3 losses in Portsmouth's recent form show their defence can be opened up more heavily than the tight head-to-head history suggests, and Derby have scored three goals as recently as their own last five too. LOSES IF: either side wins by two or more goals, since that would break both the tight scoreline projected and the pattern set by the last three meetings.
AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
Markets to consider
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Grade: WON
This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.
Scoreline Depth
- 1-111.6%Projected
- 2-18.6%Alternative
- 1-08.3%
- 1-28.1%
- 0-17.8%
Top five combined: 44.4%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Market Probability View
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Full Market Board
Correlated combos
Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.
Outcome markets
Team goals
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Today's acca
Lost2 selections at 1.97
See the ticket
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 16, 2026 | Portsmouth | 0 - 1 | Derby |
| December 20, 2025 | Derby | 1 - 1 | Portsmouth |
| April 12, 2025 | Portsmouth | 2 - 2 | Derby |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +6 | 10 | ||
| 2 | 3 | +3 | 9 | ||
| 3 | 4 | +3 | 7 | ||
| 4 | 3 | +3 | 7 | ||
| 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 | ||
| 6 | 3 | +2 | 6 | ||
| 7 | 3 | +1 | 6 | ||
| 8 | 3 | +1 | 6 | ||
| 9 | 4 | +1 | 6 | ||
| 10 | 4 | +1 | 6 | ||
| 11 | 4 | +1 | 5 | ||
| 12 | 4 | 0 | 5 | ||
| 13 | 4 | -1 | 5 | ||
| 14 | 4 | -1 | 4 | ||
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 15 | 4 | -2 | 4 | ||
| 16 | 4 | -2 | 4 | ||
| 17 | 4 | +5 | 3 | ||
| 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | ||
| 19 | 4 | -2 | 3 | ||
| 20 | 4 | -3 | 3 | ||
| 21 | 4 | -5 | 3 | ||
| 22 | 3 | -1 | 2 | ||
| 23 | 3 | -5 | 1 | ||
| 24 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 10 | |
| 2 | Charlton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| 3 | Wolves | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | |
| 4 | QPR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| 5 | Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| 7 | Millwall | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| 8 | West Brom | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| 9 | Sheffield United | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| 10 | Birmingham | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| 11 | West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 | |
| 12 | Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 13 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 | |
| 14 | Bolton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | Derby | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | |
| 16 | Lincoln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | |
| 17 | Southampton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |
| 18 | Cardiff | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | |
| 19 | Norwich | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | |
| 21 | Stoke City | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 | |
| 22 | Wrexham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | |
| 23 | Burnley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 | |
| 24 | Preston | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 0 |