Belgium vs Italy: prediction, preview and head to head

Next meeting

UEFA Nations LeagueFriday, September 25 at 06:45 PM UTC

Italy vs Belgium

Correct score: 1 - 1
Alternative score: 1 - 2
Featured pick: Goals: Over 1.5 @ 1.27

Match analysis

A 6.9 attack rating for Belgium is landing on the softest defence on this Nations League slate, Italy's 5.9, when the two meet on 25 September. Superior backs Over 1.5 goals for Italy vs Belgium at 1.27. The model prices it at 76 percent.

Belgium's attack meets the weaker of the two defences

Belgium have scored in four of their last five matches, including a 4-1 win over the USA and a 5-1 win over New Zealand, and their 6.9 attack rating tops both teams. Italy's 5.9 defence rating is the comparatively weaker figure, though Italy's own attack has been just as busy, with five goals in each of their last three wins. Between them the two sides average 4.8 goals a game, well clear of the 1.5 line this pick needs crossed.

A repeat of Belgium's blank night with Iran

This bet loses only if the match produces fewer than two goals, and Belgium have shown they can go that quiet: a scoreless draw with Iran is their most recent example of the attack stalling. Italy have not been held without a goal in their own last five games, so a low-scoring night here depends on Belgium's front line going missing again, and that single scenario is what beats this line.

Written by the Superior Football Desk · Text drafted by claude-sonnet-5

AI-assisted analysis, written from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.

Bookmaker odds

Home2.14

Draw3.56

Away3.26

Market move since Sep 22. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

More markets

Total goals

Over 1.51.22

Under 1.53.74

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.01

Over 3.52.88

Under 3.51.35

Both teams to score

Yes1.63

No2.17

Odd/Even

Odd1.87

Even1.83

Handicap

Home -0.251.86

Away +0.251.95

One bookmaker's current prices, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet. Results here settle on the 90-minute score, extra time excluded.

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