Valencia vs Força Lleida basketball prediction

ACB
Valencia
vs
Força Lleida
Correct score
102-83
Home91%
Away9%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Valencia vs Força Lleida?

Basketball: Valencia vs Força Lleida (ACB). We make it 102-83. Valencia is favoured at 91%. Our predicted total is 185 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Valencia by 19Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginValenciaForça Lleida
Wins91%9%
By 6+84%4%
By 11+74%1%
By 16+60%0%
By 21+45%0%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Valencia

Rest
7 d
  1. L86-87Barcelona Bàsquet
  2. W108-84Barcelona Bàsquet
  3. W88-80Barcelona Bàsquet
  4. W102-75Barcelona Bàsquet
  5. L112-113Barcelona Bàsquet

Força Lleida

Rest
120 d
  1. L95-116Murcia
  2. L88-116MoraBanc Andorra
  3. W75-72Gran Canaria
  4. L87-114Breogan
  5. W90-81Bilbao Basket

Head to head

  1. Feb 1, 26Valencia101Força Lleida65
  2. Oct 19, 25Força Lleida78Valencia99
  3. Apr 20, 25Força Lleida67Valencia76
  4. Dec 30, 24Valencia107Força Lleida92

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology