Trier vs Jena basketball prediction

BBL
Trier
vs
Jena
Correct score
92-88
Home66%
Away34%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Trier vs Jena?

Basketball: Trier vs Jena (BBL). We make it 92-88. Trier is favoured at 66%. Our predicted total is 180 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Trier by 4Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginTrierJena
Wins66%34%
By 6+51%22%
By 11+36%13%
By 16+23%7%
By 21+14%3%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Trier

Season record
0-1
Points per game
107
Points allowed
116
Rest
7 d
  1. L107-116Basketball Braunschweig
  2. L62-99Bayern Munich
  3. L65-92Bayern Munich
  4. L80-101Bayern Munich
  5. W76-69Rostock Seawolves

Jena

Rest
13 d
  1. L63-94Fraport Skyliners
  2. L65-83ALBA Berlin
  3. W81-79USC Heidelberg
  4. L79-89Rostock Seawolves
  5. W102-94Trier

Head to head

  1. Apr 25, 26Jena102Trier94
  2. Nov 19, 25Trier94Jena95
  3. May 31, 25Jena75Trier90
  4. May 29, 25Trier85Jena82
  5. Apr 19, 25Trier101Jena74

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology