Pallacanestro Varese vs Virtus Bologna basketball prediction

Lega A
Pallacanestro Varese
vs
Virtus Bologna
Correct score
85-87
Home44%
Away56%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Pallacanestro Varese vs Virtus Bologna?

Basketball: Pallacanestro Varese vs Virtus Bologna (Lega A). We make it 85-87. Virtus Bologna is favoured at 56%. Our predicted total is 172 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Virtus Bologna by 2Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginPallacanestro VareseVirtus Bologna
Wins44%56%
By 6+28%38%
By 11+16%22%
By 16+7%11%
By 21+3%5%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Pallacanestro Varese

Rest
140 d
  1. L85-104Virtus Bologna
  2. W84-75Vanoli Cremona
  3. L96-100Pallacanestro Cantù
  4. W91-90Sassari
  5. L89-90Trieste Pallacanestro

Virtus Bologna

Rest
7 d
  1. L71-80Olimpia Milano
  2. L83-90Venezia
  3. L85-89Venezia
  4. W98-79Venezia
  5. L83-91Venezia

Head to head

  1. May 10, 26Virtus Bologna104Pallacanestro Varese85
  2. Nov 4, 25Pallacanestro Varese77Virtus Bologna83
  3. Apr 27, 25Virtus Bologna104Pallacanestro Varese67
  4. Nov 10, 24Pallacanestro Varese104Virtus Bologna95
  5. Jan 21, 24Pallacanestro Varese69Virtus Bologna81

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology