Oldenburg vs Hamburg Towers basketball prediction

BBL
Oldenburg
vs
Hamburg Towers
Correct score
92-82
Home80%
Away20%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Oldenburg vs Hamburg Towers?

Basketball: Oldenburg vs Hamburg Towers (BBL). We make it 92-82. Oldenburg is favoured at 80%. Our predicted total is 174 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Oldenburg by 10Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginOldenburgHamburg Towers
Wins80%20%
By 6+67%12%
By 11+52%6%
By 16+38%3%
By 21+25%1%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Oldenburg

Season record
1-0
Points per game
96
Points allowed
81
Rest
7 d
  1. W96-81SYNTAINICS MBC
  2. W82-63USC Heidelberg
  3. L67-77Bayern Munich
  4. W93-84Basketball Braunschweig
  5. W98-95Trier

Hamburg Towers

Season record
0-1
Points per game
72
Points allowed
96
Rest
7 d
  1. L72-96Bonn Telekom Baskets
  2. W90-81Rostock Seawolves
  3. L71-103Rostock Seawolves
  4. L73-90Wurzburg
  5. L71-85Bamberg

Head to head

  1. Apr 1, 26Oldenburg77Hamburg Towers96
  2. Dec 27, 25Hamburg Towers69Oldenburg94
  3. Mar 15, 25Oldenburg99Hamburg Towers81
  4. Oct 6, 24Hamburg Towers87Oldenburg78
  5. May 14, 24Oldenburg81Hamburg Towers93

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology