Libertas Livorno vs Pistoia basketball prediction

Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
vs
Pistoia
Correct score
88-74
Home87%
Away13%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Libertas Livorno vs Pistoia?

Basketball: Libertas Livorno vs Pistoia (Serie A2). We make it 88-74. Libertas Livorno is favoured at 87%. Our predicted total is 162 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Libertas Livorno by 14Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginLibertas LivornoPistoia
Wins87%13%
By 6+76%6%
By 11+62%3%
By 16+46%1%
By 21+29%0%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Libertas Livorno

Rest
146 d
  1. L90-95Rimini
  2. W102-84Urania Milano
  3. W84-75Pesaro
  4. W90-82Mestre
  5. L86-91Pallacanestro Forlì 2.015

Pistoia

Rest
136 d
  1. W80-78Ruvo Di Puglia
  2. L81-88Ruvo Di Puglia
  3. W79-78Ruvo Di Puglia
  4. W97-90Ruvo Di Puglia
  5. L85-100Ruvo Di Puglia

Head to head

  1. Mar 25, 26Libertas Livorno60Pistoia68
  2. Oct 8, 25Pistoia69Libertas Livorno90

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology