Ibaraki Robots vs San-en NeoPhoenix basketball prediction

B League
Ibaraki Robots
vs
San-en NeoPhoenix
Correct score
79-88
Home28%
Away72%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Ibaraki Robots vs San-en NeoPhoenix?

Basketball: Ibaraki Robots vs San-en NeoPhoenix (B League). We make it 79-88. San-en NeoPhoenix is favoured at 72%. Our predicted total is 167 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it San-en NeoPhoenix by 9Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginIbaraki RobotsSan-en NeoPhoenix
Wins28%72%
By 6+16%58%
By 11+9%43%
By 16+4%30%
By 21+1%19%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Ibaraki Robots

Rest
146 d
  1. W91-79Osaka
  2. W87-81Osaka
  3. L69-81Shimane
  4. W88-79Shimane
  5. W79-66Altiri Chiba

San-en NeoPhoenix

Rest
146 d
  1. W93-79Nagoya Diamond Dolphins
  2. W89-66Nagoya Diamond Dolphins
  3. L73-76SeaHorses Mikawa
  4. L67-87SeaHorses Mikawa
  5. W94-86Toyama Grouses

Head to head

  1. Apr 5, 26Ibaraki Robots84San-en NeoPhoenix82
  2. Apr 4, 26Ibaraki Robots71San-en NeoPhoenix89
  3. Oct 27, 24San-en NeoPhoenix100Ibaraki Robots89
  4. Oct 26, 24San-en NeoPhoenix87Ibaraki Robots73
  5. Nov 12, 23San-en NeoPhoenix96Ibaraki Robots62

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology