Freseros de Irapuato vs Panteras basketball prediction

LNBP
Freseros de Irapuato
vs
Panteras
Correct score
84-91
Home31%
Away69%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Freseros de Irapuato vs Panteras?

Basketball: Freseros de Irapuato vs Panteras (LNBP). We make it 84-91. Panteras is favoured at 69%. Our predicted total is 175 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Panteras by 7Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginFreseros de IrapuatoPanteras
Wins31%69%
By 6+18%56%
By 11+10%42%
By 16+5%28%
By 21+2%17%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Freseros de Irapuato

Season record
9-13
Points per game
84
Points allowed
89
Rest
5 d
  1. W63-57Abejas
  2. L80-100Abejas
  3. L63-92Soles
  4. L73-85Soles
  5. W90-86Lobos Plateados

Panteras

Season record
14-8
Points per game
88.4
Points allowed
84.8
Rest
4 d
  1. W77-76Soles
  2. L67-77Soles
  3. L83-98Astros
  4. W95-83Astros
  5. W86-82El Calor de Cancun

Head to head

  1. Aug 16, 25Panteras93Freseros de Irapuato89
  2. Aug 15, 25Panteras94Freseros de Irapuato66
  3. Oct 21, 24Panteras98Freseros de Irapuato79
  4. Oct 20, 24Panteras100Freseros de Irapuato77
  5. Jul 27, 24Panteras84Freseros de Irapuato98

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology