Basquet Girona vs Murcia basketball prediction

ACB
Basquet Girona
vs
Murcia
Correct score
88-87
Home47%
Away53%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Basquet Girona vs Murcia?

Basketball: Basquet Girona vs Murcia (ACB). We make it 88-87. Basquet Girona is favoured at 47%. Our predicted total is 175 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Basquet Girona by 1Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginBasquet GironaMurcia
Wins47%53%
By 6+32%36%
By 11+20%23%
By 16+11%12%
By 21+5%6%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Basquet Girona

Rest
120 d
  1. W82-77Joventut Badalona
  2. L80-86Bilbao Basket
  3. L76-95Breogan
  4. L74-79Manresa Baxi
  5. L75-86Murcia

Murcia

Rest
112 d
  1. L76-100Barcelona Bàsquet
  2. W90-87Barcelona Bàsquet
  3. L68-91Barcelona Bàsquet
  4. W116-95Força Lleida
  5. W100-90Basket Zaragoza

Head to head

  1. May 9, 26Murcia86Basquet Girona75
  2. Oct 11, 25Basquet Girona71Murcia93
  3. Mar 15, 25Murcia64Basquet Girona76
  4. Oct 26, 24Basquet Girona75Murcia82
  5. Mar 9, 24Murcia81Basquet Girona73

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology