Valdivia vs Leones Quilpue basketball prediction

LNB
Valdivia
vs
Leones Quilpue
Correct score
82-74
Home68%
Away32%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Valdivia vs Leones Quilpue?

Basketball: Valdivia vs Leones Quilpue (LNB). We make it 82-74. Valdivia is favoured at 68%. Our predicted total is 156 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Valdivia by 8Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginValdiviaLeones Quilpue
Wins68%32%
By 6+54%19%
By 11+39%10%
By 16+25%4%
By 21+14%2%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Valdivia

Season record
24-8
Points per game
86.4
Points allowed
75.4
Rest
12 d
  1. W89-76Ancud
  2. W83-82Espanol Osorno
  3. W90-58CD Las Ánimas
  4. W96-69CD Puerto Varas
  5. W80-74Puerto Montt

Leones Quilpue

Season record
28-9
Points per game
82.3
Points allowed
77.2
Rest
9 d
  1. W87-75Puente Alto CD
  2. W79-72Universidad de Concepcion
  3. W79-76Universidad Catolica
  4. W96-69Espanol de Talca
  5. L76-97Universidad de Concepcion

Head to head

  1. Dec 20, 25Valdivia50Leones Quilpue85
  2. Dec 19, 25Valdivia58Leones Quilpue56
  3. Dec 16, 25Leones Quilpue79Valdivia65
  4. Dec 15, 25Leones Quilpue70Valdivia63
  5. Nov 2, 25Valdivia53Leones Quilpue56

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology