Saint Quentin vs JL Bourg basketball prediction

LNB
Saint Quentin
vs
JL Bourg
Correct score
85-84
Home53%
Away47%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Saint Quentin vs JL Bourg?

Basketball: Saint Quentin vs JL Bourg (LNB). We make it 85-84. Saint Quentin is favoured at 53%. Our predicted total is 169 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Saint Quentin by 1Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginSaint QuentinJL Bourg
Wins53%47%
By 6+39%32%
By 11+26%20%
By 16+16%11%
By 21+9%6%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Saint Quentin

Rest
10 d
  1. L74-123Besançon
  2. L73-76Poitiers
  3. W84-81Poitiers
  4. L96-100Poitiers
  5. L71-84Nancy SLUC

JL Bourg

Rest
121 d
  1. L103-114Monaco
  2. L75-81Monaco
  3. W91-71Strasbourg
  4. W95-78Gravelines-Dunkerque
  5. L83-101Dijon

Head to head

  1. May 3, 26JL Bourg71Saint Quentin89
  2. Dec 23, 25Saint Quentin75JL Bourg88
  3. Feb 8, 25Saint Quentin81JL Bourg83
  4. Dec 27, 24JL Bourg96Saint Quentin85
  5. Dec 28, 23JL Bourg86Saint Quentin71

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology