Reggiana vs Trento basketball prediction

Lega A
Reggiana
vs
Trento
Correct score
86-80
Home70%
Away30%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Reggiana vs Trento?

Basketball: Reggiana vs Trento (Lega A). We make it 86-80. Reggiana is favoured at 70%. Our predicted total is 166 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Reggiana by 6Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginReggianaTrento
Wins70%30%
By 6+54%16%
By 11+37%8%
By 16+22%3%
By 21+11%1%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Reggiana

Rest
127 d
  1. L72-84Olimpia Milano
  2. L65-77Olimpia Milano
  3. L84-96Olimpia Milano
  4. L77-78Treviso
  5. W91-80Basket Napoli

Trento

Rest
123 d
  1. L95-106Virtus Bologna
  2. L81-90Virtus Bologna
  3. W102-85Virtus Bologna
  4. W87-84Virtus Bologna
  5. L71-102Virtus Bologna

Head to head

  1. Apr 18, 26Trento82Reggiana90
  2. Dec 21, 25Reggiana77Trento68
  3. May 3, 25Trento84Reggiana63
  4. Feb 13, 25Trento85Reggiana80
  5. Sep 28, 24Reggiana76Trento92

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology