Opava vs Decin basketball prediction

NBL
Opava
vs
Decin
Correct score
86-84
Home53%
Away47%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Opava vs Decin?

Basketball: Opava vs Decin (NBL). We make it 86-84. Opava is favoured at 53%. Our predicted total is 170 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Opava by 2Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginOpavaDecin
Wins53%47%
By 6+39%33%
By 11+27%22%
By 16+17%13%
By 21+10%7%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Opava

Season record
0-2
Points per game
79
Points allowed
101.5
Rest
3 d
  1. L81-114Slavia Prague Era Nbk
  2. L77-89NH Ostrava
  3. L99-116Dziki Warszawa
  4. W102-101Brno Basket
  5. W96-65Brno Basket

Decin

Season record
2-0
Points per game
91.5
Points allowed
68
Rest
3 d
  1. W74-57USK Praha
  2. W109-79Plzen
  3. L78-98Brno Basket
  4. L81-86Brno Basket
  5. L65-75Brno Basket

Head to head

  1. Apr 11, 26Decin70Opava78
  2. Feb 14, 26Opava95Decin80
  3. Jan 21, 26Decin88Opava90
  4. Jan 19, 26Opava80Decin72
  5. Jan 10, 26Opava80Decin87

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology