Krosno vs Poznan basketball prediction

1 Liga
Krosno
vs
Poznan
Correct score
87-79
Home68%
Away32%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Krosno vs Poznan?

Basketball: Krosno vs Poznan (1 Liga). We make it 87-79. Krosno is favoured at 68%. Our predicted total is 166 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Krosno by 8Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginKrosnoPoznan
Wins68%32%
By 6+55%19%
By 11+41%11%
By 16+28%5%
By 21+17%2%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Krosno

Season record
0-1
Points per game
85
Points allowed
91
Rest
7 d
  1. L85-91Bytom
  2. L66-88Slask Wroclaw
  3. L85-88Szczecin
  4. L87-99Zielona Góra
  5. L89-91MKS Dabrowa Gornicza

Poznan

Season record
1-0
Points per game
96
Points allowed
75
Rest
7 d
  1. W96-75Politechnika Opolska
  2. L74-79Miners Katowice
  3. L75-77R. Rzeszow
  4. L79-97Pelplin
  5. L84-90Zubry Bialystok

Head to head

  1. Mar 2, 25Poznan71Krosno80
  2. Nov 16, 24Krosno98Poznan81
  3. Jan 17, 24Krosno80Poznan69
  4. Oct 7, 23Poznan78Krosno68

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology