Bilbao Basket vs Manresa Baxi basketball prediction

ACB
Bilbao Basket
vs
Manresa Baxi
Correct score
88-85
Home56%
Away44%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Bilbao Basket vs Manresa Baxi?

Basketball: Bilbao Basket vs Manresa Baxi (ACB). We make it 88-85. Bilbao Basket is favoured at 56%. Our predicted total is 173 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Bilbao Basket by 3Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginBilbao BasketManresa Baxi
Wins56%44%
By 6+41%29%
By 11+27%17%
By 16+16%8%
By 21+8%4%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Bilbao Basket

Rest
112 d
  1. L71-88Valencia
  2. L80-83Valencia
  3. W87-82Tenerife Lenovo
  4. W86-80Basquet Girona
  5. L83-88Valencia

Manresa Baxi

Rest
120 d
  1. W94-87Real Madrid
  2. W87-80Gran Canaria
  3. W101-83Basket Zaragoza
  4. W79-74Basquet Girona
  5. L94-104MoraBanc Andorra

Head to head

  1. Apr 18, 26Bilbao Basket80Manresa Baxi84
  2. Nov 1, 25Manresa Baxi79Bilbao Basket77
  3. Feb 8, 25Manresa Baxi89Bilbao Basket74
  4. Dec 22, 24Bilbao Basket88Manresa Baxi73
  5. May 9, 24Manresa Baxi90Bilbao Basket81

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology