La Rochelle vs ASA basketball prediction

Pro B
La Rochelle
vs
ASA
Correct score
82-81
Home53%
Away47%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for La Rochelle vs ASA?

Basketball: La Rochelle vs ASA (Pro B). We make it 82-81. La Rochelle is favoured at 53%. Our predicted total is 163 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it La Rochelle by 1Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginLa RochelleASA
Wins53%47%
By 6+37%31%
By 11+23%18%
By 16+13%9%
By 21+6%4%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

La Rochelle

Rest
10 d
  1. L82-87Toulouse
  2. L69-90Chalons-Reims
  3. L89-107Nantes
  4. W87-76St. Chamond
  5. L67-86Ada Blois

ASA

Rest
10 d
  1. W77-70Mulhouse
  2. L80-81Orléans Loiret Basket
  3. L84-91Challans
  4. L89-92Hyeres-Toulon
  5. W79-70Caen

Head to head

  1. Feb 13, 26ASA97La Rochelle89
  2. Nov 21, 25La Rochelle76ASA87
  3. May 22, 24La Rochelle75ASA54
  4. May 19, 24ASA80La Rochelle73
  5. May 16, 24La Rochelle68ASA54

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology