Fenerbahce vs Virtus Bologna basketball prediction

Euroleague
Fenerbahce
vs
Virtus Bologna
Correct scoreOur pick
87-80

Total Points: Over 160.51.62

Home72%
Away28%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Bookmaker odds

Home1.16price falling, opened at 1.17
Away5.20price rising, opened at 5.00
Total points 166 line moved from 167.5
Over1.90
Under1.90
Spread -12 line moved from -11.5
Home1.91
Away1.89

Market move since Sep 22. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

One bookmaker's current prices, settled including overtime, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet.

What is the prediction for Fenerbahce vs Virtus Bologna?

Basketball: Fenerbahce vs Virtus Bologna (Euroleague). We make it 87-80. Fenerbahce is favoured at 72%. Our predicted total is 167 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Fenerbahce by 7Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginFenerbahceVirtus Bologna
Wins72%28%
By 6+55%16%
By 11+37%8%
By 16+22%3%
By 21+12%1%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Best bets

Best price found across bookmakers when computed. Odds move, so check the book before betting.

Form and context

Fenerbahce

Rest
3 d
  1. W72-59Beşiktaş
  2. W77-75Beşiktaş
  3. W82-71Beşiktaş
  4. W93-68Beşiktaş
  5. L80-88Beşiktaş

Virtus Bologna

Rest
6 d
  1. L71-80Olimpia Milano
  2. L83-90Venezia
  3. L85-89Venezia
  4. W98-79Venezia
  5. L83-91Venezia

Head to head

  1. Jan 21, 26Virtus Bologna80Fenerbahce85
  2. Nov 25, 25Fenerbahce66Virtus Bologna64
  3. Jan 31, 25Fenerbahce95Virtus Bologna81
  4. Nov 20, 24Virtus Bologna82Fenerbahce86
  5. Jan 25, 24Fenerbahce88Virtus Bologna75

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology