Usti nad Labem vs Plzen basketball prediction

NBL
Usti nad Labem
vs
Plzen
Correct score
90-84
Home68%
Away32%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Usti nad Labem vs Plzen?

Basketball: Usti nad Labem vs Plzen (NBL). We make it 90-84. Usti nad Labem is favoured at 68%. Our predicted total is 174 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Usti nad Labem by 6Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginUsti nad LabemPlzen
Wins68%32%
By 6+54%21%
By 11+40%13%
By 16+27%7%
By 21+17%4%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Usti nad Labem

Rest
137 d
  1. L79-103Opava
  2. W87-72Opava
  3. L89-108Opava
  4. L69-85Opava
  5. W93-86Opava

Plzen

Season record
0-1
Points per game
79
Points allowed
109
Rest
6 d
  1. L79-109Decin
  2. L94-107BK Svitavy
  3. L91-96BK Svitavy
  4. W87-82Pardubice 2
  5. W85-77Novy Jicin

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology