Las Vegas Aces Women vs Los Angeles Sparks Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Las Vegas Aces Women
vs
Los Angeles Sparks Women
Correct score
94-86
Home77%
Away23%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Las Vegas Aces Women vs Los Angeles Sparks Women?

Basketball: Las Vegas Aces Women vs Los Angeles Sparks Women (NBA Women). We make it 94-86. Las Vegas Aces Women is favoured at 77%. Our predicted total is 180 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Las Vegas Aces Women by 8Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginLas Vegas Aces WomenLos Angeles Sparks Women
Wins77%23%
By 6+62%14%
By 11+45%7%
By 16+30%3%
By 21+18%1%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Las Vegas Aces Women

Season record
28-15
Points per game
90.9
Points allowed
86.8
Rest
5 d
  1. W114-77Seattle Storm Women
  2. W93-73Toronto Tempo Women
  3. W88-78Toronto Tempo Women
  4. W101-78Connecticut Sun Women
  5. L82-97Atlanta Dream Women

Los Angeles Sparks Women

Season record
17-25
Points per game
87.5
Points allowed
91
Rest
5 d
  1. W97-77Dallas Wings Women
  2. W90-74Seattle Storm Women
  3. L82-88Washington Mystics Women
  4. L71-78Atlanta Dream Women
  5. W77-68Connecticut Sun Women

Head to head

  1. Jun 3, 26Los Angeles Sparks Women69Las Vegas Aces Women79
  2. May 24, 26Las Vegas Aces Women95Los Angeles Sparks Women101
  3. May 10, 26Los Angeles Sparks Women78Las Vegas Aces Women105
  4. Sep 12, 25Los Angeles Sparks Women75Las Vegas Aces Women103
  5. Jul 30, 25Los Angeles Sparks Women74Las Vegas Aces Women89

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology