Washington Mystics Women vs Connecticut Sun Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Washington Mystics Women
vs
Connecticut Sun Women
Correct score
86-76
Home84%
Away16%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Washington Mystics Women vs Connecticut Sun Women?

Basketball: Washington Mystics Women vs Connecticut Sun Women (NBA Women). We make it 86-76. Washington Mystics Women is favoured at 84%. Our predicted total is 162 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Washington Mystics Women by 10Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginWashington Mystics WomenConnecticut Sun Women
Wins84%16%
By 6+70%9%
By 11+54%4%
By 16+38%2%
By 21+24%1%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Washington Mystics Women

Season record
27-16
Points per game
83.2
Points allowed
82.4
Rest
4 d
  1. W110-80Chicago Sky Women
  2. W88-82Los Angeles Sparks Women
  3. W80-73Phoenix Mercury Women
  4. W94-84Phoenix Mercury Women
  5. W105-100Portland Women

Connecticut Sun Women

Season record
11-32
Points per game
78.3
Points allowed
87.7
Rest
5 d
  1. L59-103Atlanta Dream Women
  2. L71-97Dallas Wings Women
  3. L91-111Indiana Fever Women
  4. L64-89Golden State Valkyries Women
  5. W87-81Chicago Sky Women

Head to head

  1. Jul 28, 26Washington Mystics Women92Connecticut Sun Women84
  2. Jun 26, 26Connecticut Sun Women68Washington Mystics Women57
  3. Jun 17, 26Connecticut Sun Women81Washington Mystics Women88
  4. Aug 21, 25Connecticut Sun Women67Washington Mystics Women56
  5. Aug 19, 25Washington Mystics Women69Connecticut Sun Women80

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology