Santos vs Lobos Plateados basketball prediction

LNBP
Santos
vs
Lobos Plateados
Correct score
82-86
Home32%
Away68%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Santos vs Lobos Plateados?

Basketball: Santos vs Lobos Plateados (LNBP). We make it 82-86. Lobos Plateados is favoured at 68%. Our predicted total is 168 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Lobos Plateados by 4Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginSantosLobos Plateados
Wins32%68%
By 6+21%52%
By 11+12%36%
By 16+6%23%
By 21+3%13%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Santos

Season record
7-13
Points per game
83
Points allowed
89
Rest
5 d
  1. W109-78Gambusinos
  2. L77-89Gambusinos
  3. L74-103Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  4. L89-101Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  5. W95-82Diablos Rojos

Lobos Plateados

Season record
12-8
Points per game
82.7
Points allowed
80.8
Rest
5 d
  1. W80-67Abejas
  2. W91-87Abejas
  3. L86-90Freseros de Irapuato
  4. L71-82Freseros de Irapuato
  5. W85-75Gambusinos

Head to head

  1. Sep 14, 24Lobos Plateados86Santos88
  2. Sep 13, 24Lobos Plateados78Santos83

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology