Phoenix Mercury Women vs Dallas Wings Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Phoenix Mercury Women
vs
Dallas Wings Women
Correct score
86-88
Home38%
Away62%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Phoenix Mercury Women vs Dallas Wings Women?

Basketball: Phoenix Mercury Women vs Dallas Wings Women (NBA Women). We make it 86-88. Dallas Wings Women is favoured at 62%. Our predicted total is 174 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Dallas Wings Women by 2Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginPhoenix Mercury WomenDallas Wings Women
Wins38%62%
By 6+26%45%
By 11+16%30%
By 16+8%18%
By 21+4%9%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Phoenix Mercury Women

Season record
15-28
Points per game
84.7
Points allowed
87.9
Rest
2 d
  1. L82-87Dallas Wings Women
  2. W94-91Portland Women
  3. W101-69Toronto Tempo Women
  4. L73-80Washington Mystics Women
  5. L84-94Washington Mystics Women

Dallas Wings Women

Season record
27-17
Points per game
89.1
Points allowed
85.4
Rest
2 d
  1. W87-82Phoenix Mercury Women
  2. L77-97Los Angeles Sparks Women
  3. W97-71Connecticut Sun Women
  4. W96-78Portland Women
  5. W92-70Seattle Storm Women

Head to head

  1. Sep 19, 26Dallas Wings Women87Phoenix Mercury Women82
  2. Jun 12, 26Dallas Wings Women85Phoenix Mercury Women70
  3. Sep 12, 25Dallas Wings Women97Phoenix Mercury Women76
  4. Jul 8, 25Phoenix Mercury Women102Dallas Wings Women72
  5. Jul 4, 25Dallas Wings Women98Phoenix Mercury Women89

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology