El Calor de Cancun vs Diablos Rojos basketball prediction

LNBP
El Calor de Cancun
vs
Diablos Rojos
Correct score
83-86
Home35%
Away65%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for El Calor de Cancun vs Diablos Rojos?

Basketball: El Calor de Cancun vs Diablos Rojos (LNBP). We make it 83-86. Diablos Rojos is favoured at 65%. Our predicted total is 169 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Diablos Rojos by 3Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginEl Calor de CancunDiablos Rojos
Wins35%65%
By 6+23%49%
By 11+13%34%
By 16+7%21%
By 21+3%12%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

El Calor de Cancun

Season record
5-15
Points per game
81.7
Points allowed
87.6
Rest
4 d
  1. L86-97Dorados
  2. L89-91Dorados
  3. L82-86Panteras
  4. W103-88Panteras
  5. L86-89Soles

Diablos Rojos

Season record
9-11
Points per game
84.3
Points allowed
83.7
Rest
5 d
  1. W96-91Correcaminos UAT Victoria
  2. W107-79Correcaminos UAT Victoria
  3. L85-98Mineros
  4. W81-75Mineros
  5. L82-95Santos

Head to head

  1. Sep 28, 25El Calor de Cancun83Diablos Rojos84
  2. Sep 27, 25El Calor de Cancun71Diablos Rojos73
  3. Jul 6, 25Diablos Rojos95El Calor de Cancun86
  4. Jul 6, 25Diablos Rojos105El Calor de Cancun82
  5. Aug 18, 24Diablos Rojos94El Calor de Cancun87

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology