Soles vs Panteras basketball prediction

LNBP
Soles
vs
Panteras
Correct score
87-81
Home69%
Away31%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Soles vs Panteras?

Basketball: Soles vs Panteras (LNBP). We make it 87-81. Soles is favoured at 69%. Our predicted total is 168 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Soles by 6Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginSolesPanteras
Wins69%31%
By 6+53%19%
By 11+38%11%
By 16+24%6%
By 21+14%3%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Soles

Season record
16-4
Points per game
85.1
Points allowed
74.4
Rest
4 d
  1. W92-63Freseros de Irapuato
  2. W85-73Freseros de Irapuato
  3. L74-81Astros
  4. W90-76Astros
  5. W89-86El Calor de Cancun

Panteras

Season record
13-7
Points per game
90
Points allowed
85.7
Rest
2 d
  1. L83-98Astros
  2. W95-83Astros
  3. W86-82El Calor de Cancun
  4. L88-103El Calor de Cancun
  5. W100-88Correcaminos UAT Victoria

Head to head

  1. Oct 18, 25Soles75Panteras82
  2. Oct 15, 25Panteras83Soles88
  3. Oct 14, 25Panteras104Soles99
  4. Oct 11, 25Soles94Panteras89
  5. Oct 10, 25Soles71Panteras79

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology