San Alfonzo vs Dep. San Jose basketball prediction

LNB
San Alfonzo
vs
Dep. San Jose
Correct score
76-93
Home2%
Away98%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for San Alfonzo vs Dep. San Jose?

Basketball: San Alfonzo vs Dep. San Jose (LNB). We make it 76-93. Dep. San Jose is favoured at 98%. Our predicted total is 169 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Dep. San Jose by 17Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginSan AlfonzoDep. San Jose
Wins2%98%
By 6+1%89%
By 11+1%79%
By 16+1%67%
By 21+0%56%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

San Alfonzo

Season record
8-21
Points per game
75.1
Points allowed
85.9
Rest
4 d
  1. L67-101Deportivo Amambay
  2. L75-125Olimpia Kings Asuncion
  3. L104-114Deportivo Campoalto
  4. L92-94Felix Perez Cardozo
  5. W126-89Capiata Bulls

Dep. San Jose

Season record
28-5
Points per game
87.2
Points allowed
78.6
Rest
2 d
  1. W67-65Olimpia Kings Asuncion
  2. W90-73Felix Perez Cardozo
  3. W98-87Colonias Gold
  4. W113-75Deportivo Campoalto
  5. W93-76Capiata Bulls

Head to head

  1. Aug 24, 26Dep. San Jose96San Alfonzo53
  2. May 21, 26Dep. San Jose39San Alfonzo89
  3. Apr 27, 26San Alfonzo100Dep. San Jose71
  4. Oct 13, 25Dep. San Jose114San Alfonzo49
  5. Sep 13, 25San Alfonzo44Dep. San Jose89

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology