Polonia Warszawa vs Lancut basketball prediction

1 Liga
Polonia Warszawa
vs
Lancut
Correct score
84-83
Home55%
Away45%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Polonia Warszawa vs Lancut?

Basketball: Polonia Warszawa vs Lancut (1 Liga). We make it 84-83. Polonia Warszawa is favoured at 55%. Our predicted total is 167 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Polonia Warszawa by 1Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginPolonia WarszawaLancut
Wins55%45%
By 6+40%31%
By 11+26%19%
By 16+16%11%
By 21+8%5%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Polonia Warszawa

Rest
159 d
  1. L72-74Kotwica Kołobrzeg
  2. L71-89Spojnia Stargard
  3. L80-90Zubry Bialystok
  4. W77-68WKK Wroclaw
  5. W90-66ŁKS Łódź

Lancut

Rest
148 d
  1. L82-91Starogard Gdanski
  2. W82-81Starogard Gdanski
  3. L90-91Starogard Gdanski
  4. L81-94Starogard Gdanski
  5. W104-96Politechnika Opolska

Head to head

  1. Feb 28, 26Lancut100Polonia Warszawa99
  2. Nov 8, 25Polonia Warszawa108Lancut96
  3. Jan 31, 25Polonia Warszawa85Lancut94
  4. Oct 23, 24Lancut64Polonia Warszawa75

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology