Toronto Tempo Women vs New York Liberty Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Toronto Tempo Women
vs
New York Liberty Women
Correct score
87-94
Home21%
Away79%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Toronto Tempo Women vs New York Liberty Women?

Basketball: Toronto Tempo Women vs New York Liberty Women (NBA Women). We make it 87-94. New York Liberty Women is favoured at 79%. Our predicted total is 181 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it New York Liberty Women by 7Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginToronto Tempo WomenNew York Liberty Women
Wins21%79%
By 6+13%62%
By 11+7%44%
By 16+3%28%
By 21+1%16%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Toronto Tempo Women

Season record
11-31
Points per game
85.6
Points allowed
93.3
Rest
1 dback-to-back
  1. L85-103Indiana Fever Women
  2. L69-101Phoenix Mercury Women
  3. L73-93Las Vegas Aces Women
  4. L78-90Seattle Storm Women
  5. L78-88Las Vegas Aces Women

New York Liberty Women

Season record
28-16
Points per game
89.9
Points allowed
86.6
Rest
1 dback-to-back
  1. W93-81Minnesota Lynx Women
  2. W85-66Chicago Sky Women
  3. L60-79Golden State Valkyries Women
  4. W109-102Indiana Fever Women
  5. W93-86Chicago Sky Women

Head to head

  1. Jul 12, 26Toronto Tempo Women93New York Liberty Women91
  2. Jun 3, 26New York Liberty Women97Toronto Tempo Women82

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology