Los Angeles Sparks Women vs Portland Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Los Angeles Sparks Women
vs
Portland Women
Correct score
91-90
Home55%
Away45%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Los Angeles Sparks Women vs Portland Women?

Basketball: Los Angeles Sparks Women vs Portland Women (NBA Women). We make it 91-90. Los Angeles Sparks Women is favoured at 55%. Our predicted total is 181 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Los Angeles Sparks Women by 1Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginLos Angeles Sparks WomenPortland Women
Wins55%45%
By 6+39%30%
By 11+26%18%
By 16+15%10%
By 21+8%4%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Los Angeles Sparks Women

Season record
17-25
Points per game
87.5
Points allowed
91
Rest
2 d
  1. W97-77Dallas Wings Women
  2. W90-74Seattle Storm Women
  3. L82-88Washington Mystics Women
  4. L71-78Atlanta Dream Women
  5. W77-68Connecticut Sun Women

Portland Women

Season record
14-27
Points per game
86
Points allowed
90.6
Rest
1 dback-to-back
  1. L66-82Golden State Valkyries Women
  2. L91-94Phoenix Mercury Women
  3. L69-86Golden State Valkyries Women
  4. W101-83Atlanta Dream Women
  5. L78-96Dallas Wings Women

Head to head

  1. Aug 2, 26Portland Women101Los Angeles Sparks Women106
  2. Jun 7, 26Los Angeles Sparks Women89Portland Women72
  3. May 3, 26Portland Women75Los Angeles Sparks Women85

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology