Astros vs Dorados basketball prediction

LNBP
Astros
vs
Dorados
Correct score
87-81
Home70%
Away30%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Astros vs Dorados?

Basketball: Astros vs Dorados (LNBP). We make it 87-81. Astros is favoured at 70%. Our predicted total is 168 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Astros by 6Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginAstrosDorados
Wins70%30%
By 6+55%18%
By 11+39%10%
By 16+25%5%
By 21+14%2%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Astros

Season record
14-6
Points per game
88.3
Points allowed
81
Rest
2 d
  1. W98-83Panteras
  2. L83-95Panteras
  3. W81-74Soles
  4. L76-90Soles
  5. W77-67Freseros de Irapuato

Dorados

Season record
13-7
Points per game
86.3
Points allowed
83.8
Rest
3 d
  1. W97-86El Calor de Cancun
  2. W91-89El Calor de Cancun
  3. L83-85Correcaminos UAT Victoria
  4. W86-79Correcaminos UAT Victoria
  5. L82-92Mineros

Head to head

  1. Aug 17, 25Astros81Dorados76
  2. Aug 16, 25Astros103Dorados68
  3. Aug 4, 24Astros94Dorados83
  4. Aug 4, 24Astros82Dorados67

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology